[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 June 15 issued 2350 UT on 10 Jun 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 11 09:50:52 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 11 JUNE - 13 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jun: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. The largest
X-ray flare was a C6 at 10/0226UT. Expect Low solar activity
with a slight chance of Moderate activity over the next three
days. The solar wind speed remained just over 600km/s over the
last 24 hours. During this period the Bz component of the IMF
ranged between +5/-4nT. Expect the solar wind to gradually return
to nominal levels over the UT day 11 June. Holloman Solar Observatory
observed a 1F H-alpha Hyder flare at 09/2001UT from active region
2364(S07E18) associated with an erupting filament and also appears
to be associated with a partial halo CME observed in SOHO C2
imagery at 09/2024UT. CAT fit and Enlil model run pending.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Jun : A K
Australian Region 9 22332222
Darwin 7 22322221
Townsville 10 32332222
Learmonth 11 22332332
Alice Springs 8 23322221
Norfolk Island 7 22332111
Culgoora 10 32332222
Gingin 11 22332332
Camden 10 32332222
Canberra 8 22332221
Launceston 15 33442322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jun :
Macquarie Island 29 32664312
Casey 18 33332452
Mawson 38 54653345
Davis 34 44434564
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 42 (Unsettled)
Canberra 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 46 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 4332 3334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Jun 6 Quiet
13 Jun 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Expect geomagnetic activity to be Unsettled to Quiet
today, 11 June and Quiet on 12-13 June, unless the partial halo
CME has a glancing blow early on 12 June then expect Unsettled
to Active geomagnetic activity with the possibility of Minor
Storm levels at higher latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jun 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 83
Jun 86
Jul 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jun 86 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jun 86 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jun 86 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionosphere is resilient as we approach the winter
solstice. Expect near predicted monthly values over the next
three days. Noted periods of spread F at higher latitude stations
and weak foF2 layer at Macquarie Island and in the Antarctic
region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jun
Speed: 621 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 198000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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