[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 June 15 issued 2354 UT on 11 Jun 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 12 09:54:24 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 12 JUNE - 14 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0855UT possible lower Indian Ocean
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jun: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Mostly low level flare activity was observed from a
number of regions during 11 June with an isolated M1-flare at
0855UT from region 2367 towards the south-east limb. Mostly low
level flare activity is expected for 12 June with the small chance
of moderate flare activity. A glancing blow from a partial halo
CME is expected during 12 June. A slow moving CME observed during
11 June appears to be directed primarily northward of the ecliptic
plane and is not expected to geoeffective. Solar wind speeds
have continued to decline slowly as the effects of a coronal
hole abate. Solar wind speeds are expected to increase again
slightly during 12 June with the anticipated impact of the partial
halo CME and then again later in the forecast period under the
influence of another coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Jun : A K
Australian Region 7 23222211
Darwin 5 23211101
Townsville 6 23212211
Learmonth 6 23212211
Alice Springs 5 23212101
Norfolk Island 6 23212111
Culgoora 6 23222201
Gingin 6 23212211
Camden 6 23222201
Canberra 4 13212100
Melbourne 7 -3223200
Launceston 9 23333201
Hobart 6 23120222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jun :
Macquarie Island 8 13233211
Casey 10 34322211
Mawson 35 46453534
Davis 43 25443761
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15 4333 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jun 20 Initially quiet with the active periods possible
later and the chance of minor storm periods at
high latitudes
13 Jun 12 Unsettled
14 Jun 16 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 22 was issued on 11 June and
is current for 12 Jun only. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to increase during 12 June due to the anticipated glancing impact
from a partial halo CME. The effects are expected to be mild.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected over the next
few days with chance of isolated depressions at times. Spread-F
conditions have been observed at a number of stations during
11 June which may have resulted in intermittent degraded HF conditions.
Spread-F conditions are expected at times during 12 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jun 93
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 83
Jun 86
Jul 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jun 86 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jun 86 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jun 86 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected over the next
few days with chance of isolated depressions at times. Spread-F
conditions have been observed at a number of stations during
11 June which may have resulted in intermittent degraded HF conditions.
Spread-F conditions are expected at times during 12 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jun
Speed: 634 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 184000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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