[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 June 15 issued 2331 UT on 09 Jun 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 10 09:31:25 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 10 JUNE - 12 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jun: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. The largest
X-ray flare was a C5 from active region 2360 at 09/0353UT. Expect
Very Low to Low solar activity with a slight chance of Moderate
activity over the next three days. The solar wind speed is currently
just over 600km/s and reached 705km/s at 09/0324UT. The Bz component
of the IMF ranged between +/-5nT. Expect the solar wind to remain
elevated over the UT day, 10 June. On 11-12 June expect the solar
wind to gradually decrease to nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Jun : A K
Australian Region 9 33212322
Darwin 8 33212222
Townsville 9 33212322
Learmonth 10 33312232
Alice Springs 9 33212322
Norfolk Island 6 32202221
Culgoora 9 33212322
Gingin 11 33302332
Camden 9 33212322
Canberra 6 32202221
Launceston 12 33313332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jun :
Macquarie Island 13 34313331
Casey 13 43322332
Mawson 38 35545364
Davis 38 34434275
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 16 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 69 (Active)
Canberra 57 (Unsettled)
Melbourne 68 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 32 4364 4443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jun 14 Unsettled to Active
11 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Jun 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Expect geomagnetic activity to be Unsettled to Active
today, 10 June, with a possibility of Minor Storm levels at higher
latitudes. On 11-12 June expect conditions to gradually return
to Unsettled to Quiet levels as the coronal hole rotates from
its geoeffective location.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jun 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 83
Jun 86
Jul 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jun 86 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
11 Jun 86 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
12 Jun 86 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 14 was issued
on 8 June and is current for 9-10 Jun. Expect HF conditions to
be near predicted monthly values with minor depressions observed
at local night due to geomagnetic storm activity for the next
two days, returning to predicted monthly values on 12 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jun
Speed: 575 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 271000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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