[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 June 15 issued 2343 UT on 08 Jun 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 9 09:43:18 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 09 JUNE - 11 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jun: 134/88
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low over the last 24 hours
and is expected to remain Very Low to Low with a slight chance
of Moderate activity over the next three days. The solar wind
speed is currently just over 600km/s due to a negative polarity
coronal hole, the Bz component of the IMF reached -21nT at 08/0505UT.
Expect the solar wind to increase to near 800 km/s due to a trailing
coronal hole later in the UT day, 09 June. ACE EPAM data indicates
an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 08/0935UT, which
can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over next
24-36 hours. On 10-11 June expect the solar wind to gradually
decrease to nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jun: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 08 Jun : A K
Australian Region 19 33444422
Darwin 19 33444422
Townsville 17 33444322
Learmonth 21 33444433
Alice Springs 19 33444422
Norfolk Island 13 32433322
Culgoora 17 33434422
Gingin 19 33434433
Camden 17 33434422
Canberra 12 22433322
Launceston 28 33545533
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jun :
Macquarie Island 37 24655543
Casey 26 34343363
Mawson 45 54544646
Davis 44 34443647
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Melbourne 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 33
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 0212 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jun 25 Active
10 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jun 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Expect geomagnetic activity to be Unsettled to Active
today, 09 June, with periods of Minor Storm levels at higher
latitudes. On 10-11 June expect conditions to gradually return
to Unsettled to Quiet levels as the coronal holes rotate out
of their geoeffective influence.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jun Fair Fair Fair-poor
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jun 93
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 83
Jun 86
Jul 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10% to
30%
10 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
11 Jun 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect HF conditions to continued to be depressed due
to geomagnetic storm activity for the next two days returning
to near predicted values on 11 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jun
Speed: 337 km/sec Density: 13.4 p/cc Temp: 54800 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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