[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 June 15 issued 2330 UT on 07 Jun 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 8 09:30:26 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 08 JUNE - 10 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jun: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Low over the last 24 hours and
is expected to remain Low with a slight chance of Moderate activity
over the next three days. No Earthward directed CMEs were recorded
in the available SOHO/LASCO observations. The solar wind speed
increased to ~ 400km/s and the magnitude of the IMF increased
to 12 nT. An interval of Bz southward conditions occurred during
02-05UT. Further increase in solar wind speed and intervals of
Bz southward conditions are likely over the next 24 hours due
to the influence of a coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 01111112
Darwin 5 11211222
Townsville 4 11111222
Learmonth 3 00111222
Alice Springs 3 00111122
Norfolk Island 2 11011111
Culgoora 3 01111112
Gingin 4 01111113
Camden 3 01111112
Canberra 0 00000011
Launceston 2 01011112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000001
Casey 2 01111012
Mawson 15 12312206
Davis 5 01222113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 1202 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jun 15 Quiet to Unsettled. Isolated Active periods possible.
09 Jun 15 Quiet to Unsettled. Isolated Active periods possible.
10 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet over the Australian region.
Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected over the next 2 days
with possible Active periods due to coronal hole effects. Conditions
are expected to then become Quieter over day 3.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
09 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
10 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jun 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 83
Jun 86
Jul 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today over
the Australian region with some periods of minor MUF depressions.
Similar levels of ionospheric support and near monthly predicted
MUF values expected for the next 3 days. Weak positive and negative
storm effects may occur due to likely minor geomagnetic storm
activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jun
Speed: 324 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 38600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list