[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 June 15 issued 2330 UT on 07 Jun 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 8 09:30:26 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 08 JUNE - 10 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jun: 137/91


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Jun             09 Jun             10 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             145/99

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Low over the last 24 hours and 
is expected to remain Low with a slight chance of Moderate activity 
over the next three days. No Earthward directed CMEs were recorded 
in the available SOHO/LASCO observations. The solar wind speed 
increased to ~ 400km/s and the magnitude of the IMF increased 
to 12 nT. An interval of Bz southward conditions occurred during 
02-05UT. Further increase in solar wind speed and intervals of 
Bz southward conditions are likely over the next 24 hours due 
to the influence of a coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 07 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   01111112
      Darwin               5   11211222
      Townsville           4   11111222
      Learmonth            3   00111222
      Alice Springs        3   00111122
      Norfolk Island       2   11011111
      Culgoora             3   01111112
      Gingin               4   01111113
      Camden               3   01111112
      Canberra             0   00000011
      Launceston           2   01011112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000001
      Casey                2   01111012
      Mawson              15   12312206
      Davis                5   01222113

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              5   1202 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Jun    15    Quiet to Unsettled. Isolated Active periods possible.
09 Jun    15    Quiet to Unsettled. Isolated Active periods possible.
10 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet over the Australian region. 
Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected over the next 2 days 
with possible Active periods due to coronal hole effects. Conditions 
are expected to then become Quieter over day 3.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
09 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
10 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Jun    70

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      83
Jun      86
Jul      84

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values
09 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values
10 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today over 
the Australian region with some periods of minor MUF depressions. 
Similar levels of ionospheric support and near monthly predicted 
MUF values expected for the next 3 days. Weak positive and negative 
storm effects may occur due to likely minor geomagnetic storm 
activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jun
Speed: 324 km/sec  Density:    6.9 p/cc  Temp:    38600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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