[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 June 15 issued 2330 UT on 06 Jun 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 7 09:30:31 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 07 JUNE - 09 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jun: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Low over the last 24 hours and
is expected to remain Low with a slight chance of Moderate activity
over the next few days. No noteworthy Earthward directed CMEs
were recorded in the available SOHO/LASCO observations. Solar
wind conditions are undisturbed and are expected to remain so
for the next 24 hours. Solar wind speeds are expected to increase
slightly from late day 2, 08 Jun due to the arrival of fast wind
emanating from a coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 12111000
Darwin 2 02111000
Townsville 3 12121001
Learmonth 2 02121000
Alice Springs 1 02110000
Norfolk Island 2 02110010
Culgoora 2 2-111001
Gingin 2 12110000
Camden 2 12111001
Canberra 0 01000000
Launceston 2 02121000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jun :
Macquarie Island 1 00021000
Casey 3 03111000
Mawson 4 22101103
Davis 3 03211000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 2 0000 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jun 7 Quiet
08 Jun 15 Quiet to Unsettled. Possible Isolated Active
periods.
09 Jun 15 Quiet to Unsettled. Possible Isolated Active
periods.
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly
Quiet conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Unsettled conditions
with isolated Active periods possible from day 2, 8 Jun should
coronal hole effects eventuate.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
08 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
09 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jun 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 83
Jun 86
Jul 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today over
the Australian region with some periods of minor MUF depressions.
Similar levels of ionospheric support and near monthly predicted
MUF values expected for the next 3 days. Short wave fade outs
may occur due to increasing potential for flare activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jun
Speed: 273 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 22900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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