[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 June 15 issued 2330 UT on 01 Jun 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 2 09:30:31 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 02 JUNE - 04 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jun: 100/48


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Jun             03 Jun             04 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at Very Low levels during the 
UT day, 01 Jun. Visible sunspot regions are small and not magnetically 
complex, no significant flaring activity is expected for the 
next 3 days. Two CMEs were observed in SOHO/LASCO imagery at 
0536UT and 1348UT. Any associated ejecta is unlikely to be Earthward 
directed. Solar wind conditions are ambient and are expected 
to remain so for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 01 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11120010
      Darwin               3   22120011
      Townsville           2   11210011
      Learmonth            3   21120020
      Alice Springs        2   21110010
      Norfolk Island       2   11120010
      Culgoora             2   11220010
      Gingin               3   21120020
      Camden               2   11120010
      Canberra             1   11110010
      Launceston           3   12120020    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     3   02130000
      Casey                5   22221021
      Mawson              12   43322132
      Davis                7   32321022

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   1111 0212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Jun     5    Quiet
03 Jun     5    Quiet
04 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to remain 
so for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
03 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
04 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Jun    66

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      83
Jun      86
Jul      84

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Jun    65    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
03 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
04 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed across 
the Australian region during the last 24 hours due to low levels 
of ionising solar flux. Similar levels of ionospheric support 
are expected for the next 24 hours, improving thereafter.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 May
Speed: 358 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:    54700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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