[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 June 15 issued 2330 UT on 02 Jun 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 3 09:30:28 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 03 JUNE - 05 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jun: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jun             04 Jun             05 Jun
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low with a single C1 flare. 
All visible regions remained relatively stable. Solar activity 
is expected to be at Very Low to Low levels for the next three 
days. GONG Big Bear H alpha images recorded a small Disappearing 
Solar Filament (DSF) in the SW quadrant ~1820UT. No noteworthy 
Earthward directed CMEs were recorded in the available SOHO/LASCO 
observations. Solar wind conditions are ambient and are expected 
to remain so for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 02 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   01000000
      Darwin               1   11000001
      Townsville           1   11100011
      Learmonth            0   01100000
      Alice Springs        0   00000000
      Norfolk Island       0   00000000
      Culgoora             0   01100000
      Gingin               0   00100000
      Camden               0   00000000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           0   01000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                3   22201000
      Mawson               1   11100000
      Davis                1   11100000

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8   3322 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jun     5    Quiet
04 Jun     5    Quiet
05 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to remain 
so for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
04 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
05 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Jun    63

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      83
Jun      86
Jul      84

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values
04 Jun    75    Near predicted monthly values
05 Jun    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today over 
Southern AUS/NZ regions. Variable ionospheric support observed 
at Equatorial regions. Some periods of minor to moderate MUF 
depressions for Northern AUS regions. Similar levels of ionospheric 
support and near monthly predicted MUF values expected for the 
next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jun
Speed: 345 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:    41700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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