[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 May 15 issued 2330 UT on 31 May 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 1 09:30:36 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 01 JUNE - 03 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 May: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed varied between 340 and 400 km/s and the Bz component
of IMF varied between +/-5 nT during most parts of this period.
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the
next three days with some possibility of C-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 May : A K
Australian Region 2 11100111
Darwin 1 11100101
Townsville 2 12100111
Learmonth 2 11200210
Alice Springs 1 11100100
Norfolk Island 1 11100011
Culgoora 1 01100111
Gingin 2 01200210
Camden 2 12100111
Canberra 0 11000000
Launceston 2 01101111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000100
Casey 3 12210210
Mawson 9 32311232
Davis 10 13321241
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1111 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jun 5 Quiet
02 Jun 5 Quiet
03 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today. Nearly
similar conditions are expected for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed during
the last 24 hours due to low levels of ionising solar flux. Nearly
similar conditions may be expected for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 May 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 101
May 90
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jun 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
02 Jun 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
03 Jun 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed in Aus/NZ
regions during the last 24 hours due to low levels of ionising
solar flux. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected in this
region for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 May
Speed: 390 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 70200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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