[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 July 15 issued 0259 UT on 26 Jul 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 26 12:59:20 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03UT/26 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
N.B. Late release due to technical issues
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JULY - 28 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jul: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jul 27 Jul 28 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: No significant X-ray activity observed July 25. Disappearing
solar filaments reported in the SE and NW quadrants. No significant
CME activity was observed in LASCO C2/C3 imagery. Solar wind
speed remains moderately elevated at around 450 km/s. The IMF
Bz component fluctuated +/-5nT about neutral with sustained intervals
of mild Southward bias 07-11UT and 19-23UT. Solar wind parameters
are expected to remain slightly elevated next 2-3 days due to persistent
coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 12221012
Cocos Island 3 01221011
Darwin 4 11221012
Townsville 5 22221022
Learmonth 5 12221022
Alice Springs 4 12221012
Norfolk Island 2 11120011
Culgoora 4 12221012
Gingin 5 12221022
Camden 4 12221012
Canberra 2 01121011
Launceston 6 12232112
Hobart 3 11122001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jul :
Macquarie Island 4 11232000
Casey 8 33321022
Mawson 24 44343245
Davis 11 33332113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2110 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jul 6 Quiet
28 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid
latitudes and mostly Unsettled at high latitudes. Expect similar
conditions next three days. A northern hemisphere solar coronal
hole is now approaching the west limb while a smaller low latitude
coronal hole is now in the western hemisphere. These two features
are expected to maintain slightly elevated solar wind parameters
for the next three days with the possibility of occasional geomagnetic
disturbance.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Fair Normal-fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Fair Normal Normal-fair
27 Jul Fair Normal Normal
28 Jul Fair Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Generally depressed HF propagation conditions observed
due to low EUV radiation. Disturbance at high latitudes due to
elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jul 43
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available..
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day
and after local dawn.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Extended periods of disturbance.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 70
Jul 84
Aug 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jul 45 15 to 40% below predicted monthly values
27 Jul 50 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
28 Jul 50 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 23 July
and is current for 24-26 Jul. IPS HF Warning 15/26 has been issued
as a continuation of HF Warning 15/25. MUF depressions of up
to 40% have been seen across much of the Australasian region
over the last 24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels
of ionising solar flux. Disturbed conditions also observed Antarctic
region due to elevated geomagnetic activity. Expect similar conditions
next three days
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jul
Speed: 426 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 81100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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