[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 July 15 issued 2337 UT on 24 Jul 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 25 09:37:11 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jul 26 Jul 27 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Minor X-ray activity was observed in recently numbered
region AR2389 (S14E67), with impulsive C2 level flares at 1425UT
and 1750UT. Disappearing solar filaments were reported at 0136
(S44E04) and 1452UT (S42E56). No Earth-directed CME's were observed
in the period. Background X-ray flux has increased from low to
mid-B levels. There is potential for further C- level flares
over the next three days. Solar wind speed remains moderately
elevated at around 400 km/s. The IMF Bz component fluctuated
to +/-8nT over the first half of the UT day. There was a sustained
Bz Southward bias of -3 to -5nT for several hours in the mid
part of the UT day, after which Bz fluctuated +/-3nT to neutral
towards the end of the day. Expect mildly elevated solar wind
parameters for the next three days due to declining CME effects
combined with a positive polarity coronal hole now in the NW
quadrant and a further small equatorial coronal hole now at central
meridian.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 11113211
Cocos Island 3 11111111
Darwin 4 12202211
Townsville 6 12113212
Learmonth 6 12213212
Alice Springs 5 11113211
Norfolk Island 4 21102211
Culgoora 4 11103211
Gingin 7 22213212
Camden 5 21113211
Canberra 3 11003200
Launceston 7 22104211
Hobart 5 21103211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jul :
Macquarie Island 5 21004201
Casey 9 33313112
Mawson 22 43421236
Davis 20 33332136
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 22 3553 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jul 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid
latitudes with Unsettled periods 12-15UT in response to an interval
of moderately negative IMF Bz. Mostly Unsettled conditions were
observed at high latitudes. Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions
days one and two of the forecast period, with Unsettled to briefly
Active periods possible at high latitudes. Conditions should
decline to mostly Quiet by day three.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Fair Normal Normal-fair
26 Jul Fair Normal Normal-fair
27 Jul Fair Normal Normal
COMMENT: Generally depressed HF propagation conditions observed
due to low EUV radiation. Disturbance at high latitudes due to
elevated geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jul 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day and
after local dawn.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day and
after local dawn.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day and
after local dawn.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Extended periods of disturbance over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 70
Jul 84
Aug 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jul 50 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
26 Jul 50 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
27 Jul 55 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 23 July
and is current for 24-26 Jul. IPS HF Warning 15/26 has been issued
as a continuation of HF Warning 15/25. MUF depressions of up
to 40% have been seen across much of the Australasian region
over the last 24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels
of ionising solar flux. Disturbed conditions also observed Antarctic
region due to elevated geomagnetic activity. Further disturbance
expected days one and two of the forecast period. Slowly increasing
solar X-ray flux may result in some MUF recovery by day three.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul
Speed: 446 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 148000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list