[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 July 15 issued 2353 UT on 23 Jul 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 24 09:53:43 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JULY - 26 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jul: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jul 25 Jul 26 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: No significant X-ray activity observed. Solar wind speed
increased from 400 to 500 km/s over the UT day. IMF Bz maintained
a Southward bias of about -12 nT from 02 to 08UT before returning
to a mostly neutral configuration, with brief positive and negative
excursions. The disturbed solar wind parameters are possibly
due to a glancing blow from the CME observed July 19. Solar X-ray
activity is expected to be low for the next three days. Solar
wind parameters are expected to remain moderately elevated due
to a northern hemisphere coronal hole now moving into geoeffective
position.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 23 Jul : A K
Australian Region 10 32422221
Cocos Island 7 22322121
Darwin 8 22422121
Townsville 11 33422221
Learmonth 10 32422222
Alice Springs 11 22522121
Norfolk Island 10 42322221
Culgoora 5 21------
Gingin 10 32422222
Camden 11 22522221
Canberra 7 22421120
Launceston 17 32632221
Hobart 12 225-2221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jul :
Macquarie Island 31 24744311
Casey 10 33322222
Mawson 60 77532256
Davis 20 54333242
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 7 2112 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
25 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Following a significant southward IMF excursion of -12nT
from 02 to 08UT, the regional geomagnetic field reached Unsettled
to Minor Storm levels at low to mid latitudes from 03 to 09UT.
Unsettled to Major Storm levels were observed throughout the
UT day at high latitudes. Conditions are expected to remain moderately
disturbed for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Fair Normal Normal-fair
25 Jul Fair Normal Normal-fair
26 Jul Fair Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Generally depressed HF propagation conditions observed
due to low EUV radiation. Disturbance at high latitudes due to
elevated geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jul 49
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day/night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day and after
local dawn.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Extended periods of disturbance.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 70
Jul 84
Aug 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jul 55 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
25 Jul 55 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
26 Jul 55 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 23 July
and is current for 24-26 Jul. IPS HF Warning 15/26 has been issued
as a continuation of HF Warning 15/25. MUF depressions of up
to 30% have been seen across much of the Australasian region
over the last 24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels
of ionising solar flux. Disturbed conditions also observed Antarctic
region due to elevated geomagnetic activity. Further disturbance
expected days one and two of the forecast period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jul
Speed: 359 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 80200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list