[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 July 15 issued 2336 UT on 22 Jul 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 23 09:36:31 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JULY - 25 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jul: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: No significant X-ray activity observed. Solar wind speed
is mildly elevated at around 400km/s. IMF Bz mostly neutral with
minor fluctuations of +/-5nT. Further mild elevation of solar
wind parameters is possible over the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 11111211
Cocos Island 2 00111210
Darwin 4 12111211
Townsville 4 12111211
Learmonth 5 11221320
Alice Springs 3 01111211
Norfolk Island 2 11011210
Culgoora 3 11111211
Gingin 4 11111320
Camden 3 01111211
Canberra 1 00010110
Melbourne 3 11111211
Launceston 4 11121211
Hobart 1 10011010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jul :
Macquarie Island 3 00032110
Casey 5 12222210
Mawson 11 22223324
Davis 6 12322211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12 3233 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jul 12 Unsettled
24 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid
latitudes with isolated Unsettled periods at high latitudes.
Possible mild coronal hole effects may produce Unsettled periods
days one and two of the forecast period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Fair Normal Normal-fair
24 Jul Fair Normal Normal-fair
25 Jul Fair Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Generally slightly depressed HF propagation conditions
observed due to low EUV radiation.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jul 42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25%.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night and.
after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 70
Jul 84
Aug 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jul 50 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
24 Jul 55 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
25 Jul 55 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 20 July
and is current for 21-23 Jul. MUF depressions of up to 30% have
been seen across much of the Australian region over the last
24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels of ionising
solar flux. IPS HF Warning 15/25 has been issued as a continuation
of HF Warning 15/24.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jul
Speed: 391 km/sec Density: 9.2 p/cc Temp: 120000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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