[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 July 15 issued 2351 UT on 21 Jul 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 22 09:51:41 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JULY - 24 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jul: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jul 23 Jul 24 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: No significant solar X-ray activity observed July 21.
Solar wind speed was mildly elevated at 350-450 km/s due to a
small equatorial coronal hole. Solar wind parameters may become
moderately elevated in the next 2-3 days due to a northern hemisphere
coronal hole now at solar central meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 22222111
Cocos Island 5 32212011
Darwin 0 00000000
Townsville 7 32222122
Learmonth 8 32322022
Alice Springs 6 32222012
Norfolk Island 5 31221111
Culgoora 6 22222112
Gingin 6 21222122
Camden 6 22222112
Canberra 3 21122001
Melbourne 6 22222112
Launceston 6 32222111
Hobart 5 12222111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jul :
Macquarie Island 6 11243000
Casey 8 23322112
Mawson 17 22333145
Davis 8 12332122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 N/A
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jul 5 Quiet
23 Jul 12 Unsettled
24 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Regional geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet with
isolated Unsettled periods at high latitudes only. Mostly Quiet
conditions expected next three days with periods of Unsettled
conditions possible due to mildly enhanced solar wind parameters.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Fair Normal Normal
23 Jul Fair Normal Normal
24 Jul Fair Normal Normal
COMMENT: Generally slightly depressed HF propagation conditions
observed due to low EUV radiation.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jul 45
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35%.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 70
Jul 84
Aug 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jul 50 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
23 Jul 55 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
24 Jul 60 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 20 July
and is current for 21-23 Jul. MUF depressions of up to 30% have
been seen across much of the Australian region over the last
24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels of ionising
solar flux. IPS HF Warning 15/25 has been issued as a continuation
of HF Warning 15/24.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: N/A
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: N/A
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: N/A
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: N/A
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jul
Speed: 289 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 17200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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