[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 July 15 issued 2334 UT on 20 Jul 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 21 09:34:26 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JULY - 23 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jul: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: No solar X-ray flare events were observed over the UT
day July 20. Solar wind speed increased slightly over the UT
day but remains below 300 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field
Bz component was mildly negative over the first half of the UT
day, becoming moderately positive over the second half of the
UT day. There may be little further effect from the present narrow
equatorial coronal hole. Mildly enhanced solar wind conditions
are possible day three due to a northern hemisphere coronal hole
now approaching solar central meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Jul : A K
Australian Region 0 00011000
Cocos Island 0 00101000
Darwin 0 00000000
Townsville 2 01111011
Learmonth 1 00111000
Alice Springs 0 00011000
Norfolk Island 1 01000011
Culgoora 1 01111000
Gingin 1 00111000
Camden 1 00111000
Canberra 0 00010000
Melbourne 1 00021000
Launceston 1 00021100
Hobart 1 00012000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 00031000
Casey 3 02221001
Mawson 2 11112100
Davis 3 02222100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0001 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Jul 5 Quiet
23 Jul 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed at all latitudes
on July 20. Isolated Unsettled intervals possible at high latitudes
day one of the forecast period. Mildly enhanced solar wind parameters
possible day three with mostly Unsettled geomagnetic conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Fair Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Generally slightly depressed HF propagation conditions
observed due to low EUV radiation.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jul 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night and after
local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25%.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 70
Jul 84
Aug 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jul 50 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
22 Jul 50 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
23 Jul 60 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 20 July
and is current for 21-23 Jul. MUF depressions of up to 30% have
been seen across much of the Australian region over the last
24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels of ionising
solar flux. IPS HF Warning 15/25 has been issued as a continuation
of HF Warning 15/24.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jul
Speed: 299 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 22300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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