[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 July 15 issued 2352 UT on 26 Jul 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 27 09:52:06 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JULY - 29 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jul: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jul 28 Jul 29 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Active region 2389 (S11E35) produced a number of B-
and one minor C-class flares over the UT day. Solar wind speed
remains elevated between 400 and 500 km/s. The IMF Bz component
was mostly neutral with sustained mild southward bias from 08-16UT.
No Earth-directed CME's observed over the UT day Jul 26. Expect
low solar activity next three days with the chance of isolated
C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 21121121
Cocos Island 3 20120111
Darwin 4 21120112
Townsville 5 21130121
Learmonth 5 21131121
Alice Springs 3 21120021
Norfolk Island 3 11120111
Culgoora 4 21121120
Gingin 5 31121121
Camden 6 21131122
Canberra 3 20------
Launceston 6 21132121
Hobart 2 20021100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jul :
Macquarie Island 6 11142111
Casey 7 32321111
Mawson 20 62233224
Davis 63 59332311
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 2122 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jul 6 Quiet
28 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The low to mid latitude geomagnetic field was Quiet
with an Unsettled period 09-12 UT in response to sustained mild
solar wind southward Bz. At high latitudes conditions were Quiet
to Unsettled with some Active to Minor Storm intervals observed
early in the UT day. Expect Quiet conditions day one. Further
coronal hole effects possible days two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Fair-normal Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jul Fair-normal Normal Fair
28 Jul Fair-normal Normal Fair
29 Jul Fair-normal Normal Fair
COMMENT: Generally depressed HF propagation conditions observed
due to low EUV radiation. Disturbance possible at high latitudes
in association with elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jul 49
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day
and after local dawn.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day
and after local dawn.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 70
Jul 84
Aug 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jul 50 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
28 Jul 55 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
29 Jul 55 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF depressions of up to 30% have been seen across much
of the Australasian region over the last 24 hours. These conditions
are due to low levels of ionising solar flux. Disturbed conditions
also observed Antarctic region due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
Expect similar conditions next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jul
Speed: 417 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 109000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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