[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 17 Jul 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 18 09:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JULY - 20 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jul: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jul 19 Jul 20 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity is at very low levels with no regions
of significance on the visible Sun. Solar wind conditions are
ambient. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels
for the next 3 days. A high speed solar wind stream from a small
equatorial coronal hole is expected to produce a mild CIR arriving
sometime on the 19th of July UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11110000
Cocos Island 0 01100000
Darwin 0 00000000
Townsville 2 21110011
Learmonth 2 12101000
Alice Springs 1 11100---
Norfolk Island 0 11000000
Culgoora 1 11110000
Gingin 3 12101---
Camden 1 11111000
Canberra 0 00000000
Melbourne 2 11121100
Launceston 3 11121110
Hobart 1 01000110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 01012---
Casey 7 23221---
Mawson 11 33322---
Davis 15 33322225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 8 3232 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jul 5 Quiet
19 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
20 Jul 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet. These conditions are
expected to continue until the anticipated arrival of a coronal
hole high speed solar wind stream sometime on the 19th of July.
This may cause isolated Active periods as it arrives followed
by Unsettled conditions for 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jul 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 70
Jul 84
Aug 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jul 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
19 Jul 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
20 Jul 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 24 was issued on 17 July
and is current for 18-20 Jul. MUF depressions of up to 20% have
been seen across much of the Australian region over the last
24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels of ionising
solar flux. IPS HF Warning 15/24 has been issued and is current
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jul
Speed: 489 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 177000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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