[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 16 Jul 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 17 09:30:27 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JULY - 19 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jul: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity is at very low levels with no regions
of significance on the visible Sun. Solar wind conditions are
mostly ambient with a somewhat elevated wind speed of around
500 km/s. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels
for the next 3 days. A small equatorial coronal hole is visible
on the Sun just crossing the central meridian. It is expected
to produce a mild CIR arriving sometime on the 19th of July UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 22231110
Cocos Island 3 1221110-
Darwin 4 2222110-
Townsville 6 22231111
Learmonth 5 22221210
Alice Springs 4 12221110
Norfolk Island 4 22230000
Culgoora 6 22231111
Gingin 6 2223021-
Camden 6 22231111
Canberra 6 2223110-
Melbourne 5 22230210
Launceston 6 22231211
Hobart 5 11123210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jul :
Macquarie Island 6 2114010-
Casey 9 3332121-
Mawson 19 54432133
Davis 23 34432226
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1211 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jul 5 Quiet
18 Jul 5 Quiet
19 Jul 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to remain
so for the next 2 days. On the 18th of July a new coronal hole
high speed wind stream is expected to produce mostly Unsettled
conditions with a chance of isolated Active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jul 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 70
Jul 84
Aug 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jul 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
18 Jul 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
19 Jul 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 23 was issued on 14 July
and is current for 15-17 Jul. MUF depressions of up to 20% have
been seen across much of the Australian region over the last
24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels of ionising
solar flux. IPS HF Warning 15/23 has been issued and is current
for the next day. Depressed conditions are expected for the next
3 days and a warning is likely to be re-issued when the current
one expires.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jul
Speed: 513 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 269000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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