[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jul 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 16 09:30:29 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity is at very low levels with no regions
of significance on the visible Sun. Solar wind conditions are
mostly ambient with a somewhat elevated wind speed of around
550 km/s. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels
for the next 3 days with nominal solar wind conditions.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Cocos Island 2 01111101
Darwin 4 12112111
Townsville 4 12212101
Learmonth 4 21212111
Alice Springs 2 01102101
Norfolk Island 5 31101113
Culgoora 2 11101101
Gingin 4 12112111
Camden 2 12101101
Canberra 1 01100001
Melbourne 3 11111111
Launceston 3 12111111
Hobart 1 10110010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 00002100
Casey 7 23311112
Mawson 14 13223235
Davis 13 13322225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 3210 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jul 5 Quiet
17 Jul 5 Quiet
18 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to remain
so for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jul 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 70
Jul 84
Aug 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jul 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
17 Jul 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
18 Jul 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 23 was issued on 14 July
and is current for 15-17 Jul. MUF depressions of up to 20% have
been seen across much of the Australian region over the last
24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels of ionising
solar flux. IPS HF Warning 15/23 has been issued and is current
for the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul
Speed: 451 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 53800 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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