[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 18 Jul 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 19 09:30:26 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JULY - 21 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jul: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jul 20 Jul 21 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity is at Low levels with a single C1 X-ray
flare over the last 24 hours. This was from a region around the
western limb. All visible sunspot regions on the Sun are small
and magnetically simple. Solar wind conditions are ambient. Solar
activity is expected to be very low for the next 3 days. A coronal
hole high speed solar wind stream is expected to arrive late
on the 19th of July UT with effects lasting around 48 hours after
arrival.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Jul : A K
Australian Region 0 01000010
Cocos Island 0 00100010
Darwin 0 00000000
Townsville 1 11100011
Learmonth 0 10000010
Alice Springs 1 12000010
Norfolk Island 0 01010000
Culgoora 1 01010011
Gingin 2 -1100120
Camden 1 01011011
Canberra 0 00000000
Melbourne 1 01011010
Launceston 1 01011010
Hobart 0 00001100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 00021000
Casey 2 12101020
Mawson 8 01111152
Davis 11 12211153
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 3 1121 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jul 12 Unsettled
20 Jul 12 Unsettled
21 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet. These conditions are
expected to continue until the arrival of a coronal hole high
speed wind stream late on the 19th of July UT. This may cause
isolated Active periods on arrival followed by mostly Unsettled
conditions for several days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jul 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 70
Jul 84
Aug 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jul 55 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
20 Jul 50 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
21 Jul 50 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 24 was issued on 17 July
and is current for 18-20 Jul. MUF depressions of up to 20% have
been seen across much of the Australian region over the last
24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels of ionising
solar flux. IPS HF Warning 15/24 has been issued and is current
for the next 2 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jul
Speed: 414 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 68200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list