[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 January 15 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jan 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 5 10:30:29 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1536UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan: 150/105
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 155/109 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity has been at moderate levels over the
last 24 hours. Several C-class and one long duration M1.1 flares
were observed during this period from region 2253. The M1.1 flare
from region 2253(S07W04) started at 1518 UT, peaked at 1536 UT
and ended at 1553 UT. No Type II radio burst or CME could be
associated with the flare. Solar wind speed mostly varied between
360 and 440 km during the UT day today. The Bz component of IMF
stayed close to the normal value for the first 3 hours of the
day and then turned negative and stayed negative up to around
-10 UT for most parts of the remaining UT day. Solar activity
is expected to stay at low levels for the next three days with
some possibility of M-class event and minor possibility of isolated
X-class event, especially from region 2253 which is currently
the largest and the most active of the 6 regions visible on the
earth facing solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: Quiet to active
with isolated minor storm periods.
Estimated Indices 04 Jan : A K
Australian Region 13 12233433
Cocos Island 12 12123522
Darwin 14 22223434
Townsville 13 12233433
Learmonth 12 12223433
Alice Springs 14 02133533
Norfolk Island 11 12133333
Culgoora 13 12233433
Gingin 18 11233544
Camden 15 12233533
Canberra 11 02123433
Hobart 15 12233533
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jan :
Macquarie Island 35 01456643
Casey 21 24443443
Mawson 38 24344753
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jan :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 11 5223 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: As anticipated, mostly quiet to active conditions, with
some minor storm periods on high latitudes, were observed today.
Quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active periods may
be expected on 5 January. Conditions may return to unsettled
and then quiet levels on 6 January and stay quiet on 7 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values with some periods
of minor enhancements in the low latitude regions today. Mostly
normal HF conditions may be expected for the next three days
with the possibility of minor to mild MUF depressions on 05 January,
especially in the high latitude locations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jan 96
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 106
Jan 89
Feb 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jan 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
06 Jan 85 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values with some periods
of minor enhancements in Northern Aus/NZ regions today. Mostly
normal HF conditions may be expected for the next three days
with the possibility of minor to mild MUF depressions on 05 January,
especially in the Southern parts of the Aus/NZ region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jan
Speed: 452 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 133000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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