[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 January 15 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jan 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 4 10:30:35 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JANUARY - 06 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 0947UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jan: 149/104
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity has been at moderate levels over the
last 24 hours. Several C-class and one M1.1 flares were observed
during this period from region 2253. The M1.1 flare from region
2253(S07E09) peaked at 0947 UT. No Type II radio burst or CME
could be associated with the flare. Solar wind speed showed a
gradual increase from nearly 380 km/s to around 520 km/s by 1000
UT and then a gradual decrease to around 450 km/s by 2300 UT
today. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between +8/-10 nT by
1100 UT and then stayed mostly positive around +5nT through the
rest of the day. Solar activity is expected to stay at low levels
for the next three days with some possibility of M-class event,
especially from region 2253. Due to the effect of a coronal hole,
solar wind stream may stay moderately strong over the next 2
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jan: Quiet to active
with isolated minor storm periods on high latitudes
Estimated Indices 03 Jan : A K
Australian Region 9 33332111
Cocos Island 7 33322010
Darwin 11 34332112
Townsville 13 44332121
Learmonth 8 -3332110
Alice Springs 9 33332111
Norfolk Island 7 33321011
Culgoora 11 34332121
Gingin 11 43332111
Camden 13 34432121
Canberra 7 33321011
Hobart 11 34431011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jan :
Macquarie Island 11 33343110
Casey 42 57554232
Mawson 28 64544221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jan :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 3111 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jan 10 Unsettled to Active
05 Jan 10 Unsettled to Active
06 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: As anticipated, mostly quiet to active conditions, with
some minor storm periods on high latitudes, were observed today.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected on 4 and 5 January
due to the expected effect of a high speed solar wind stream
from a coronal hole. Conditions may decline to unsettled and
then quiet levels on 6 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values with some periods
of minor depressions in mid latitude regions today. Mostly normal
HF conditions may be expected for the next three days with the
possibility of minor to mild MUF depressions on 04 and 05 January,
especially on the high latitude locations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jan 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 106
Jan 89
Feb 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jan 95 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jan 95 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jan 105 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values with some periods
of minor depressions in Northern Aus/NZ regions today. Mostly
normal HF conditions may be expected for the next three days
with the possibility of minor to mild MUF depressions on 04 and
05 January, especially in the Southern parts of the Aus/NZ region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jan
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 63200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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