[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 January 15 issued 2330 UT on 02 Jan 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 3 10:30:33 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JANUARY - 05 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jan: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the last 24 hours.
Today's largest event was a C1.2 flare at 1948UT from region
2256(S08W48). Solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from
nearly 450 km/s to around 370 km/s during the UT day today. The
Bz component of IMF mostly stayed close to the normal value during
the first half of the UT day and then varied between +/-5 nT
staying south for relatively longer periods of time. Solar activity
is expected to stay at low levels for the next three days with
some possibility of isolated M-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 21223222
Cocos Island 6 21222122
Darwin 9 22223223
Townsville 11 22333223
Learmonth 6 21122123
Alice Springs 9 22223223
Norfolk Island 6 11222222
Culgoora 8 11323222
Gingin 8 21222133
Camden 9 22323222
Canberra 5 11222122
Hobart 10 22323232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jan :
Macquarie Island 15 12235242
Casey 21 34543233
Mawson 21 43323354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jan :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 4 2110 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions were observed today
due to the declining effect of a high speed solar wind stream
from a coronal hole. Due to exposure of the earth to high speed
solar wind stream on 3 January and a possible effect of another
coronal hole from 4 January, geomagnetic activity may rise to
unsettled levels on 3, 4 and 5 January with the possibility of
isolated active periods on all these days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values with some periods
of minor to mild enhancements at low latitude locations today.
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the next three
days with the possibility of minor to mild MUF depressions on
03, 04 and 05 January, especially in the high latitude regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jan 105
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 106
Jan 89
Feb 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jan 105 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jan 105 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jan 105 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values with some periods
of minor to mild enhancements in Northern Aus/NZ regions today.
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the next three
days with the possibility of minor to mild MUF depressions on
03, 04 and 05 January, especially in the Southern parts of the
Aus/NZ region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jan
Speed: 473 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 79100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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