[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 January 15 issued 2334 UT on 05 Jan 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 6 10:34:30 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jan: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 155/109 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with several
C-class flares from region 2253 (S16E27), the largest being a
C7.4 at 1747UT. Solar wind speed increased from ~450km/s at 00UT
to range between 500km/s and 550km/s over the UT day due to the
effects of a high speed solar wind stream from a minor coronal
hole. The Bz component of the IMF ranged between +/-10nT between
00UT-08UT and decreased in magnitude to be +/-2nT at the time
of this report. Solar activity is expected to stay at Low levels
for the next three days with some possibility of M-class event.
A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0706UT on 05 Jan.
Region 2242 (S16) which previously produced X-flare(s) is due
to return around 6 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 33322222
Cocos Island 7 22322122
Darwin 11 33322223
Townsville 10 32322223
Learmonth 8 32222222
Alice Springs 9 32322123
Norfolk Island 7 32222122
Culgoora 13 -5322122
Gingin 14 43323233
Camden 10 33322222
Canberra 9 33322122
Hobart 12 43332222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jan :
Macquarie Island 15 43244222
Casey 57 67753233
Mawson 34 55443355
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jan :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20 1134 4534
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Jan 7 Quiet
08 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: As anticipated, Quiet to Unsettled conditions with Active
periods for high latitudes observed for 05Jan due to minor coronal
holes effects. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected
for the next 3 days. Possible >10MeV proton threshold crossing
in the next 24-48 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Periods of minor enhancements in the low latitude regions
today and notable depressed MUF's and disturbed HF conditions
for medium to high latitudes. Mostly normal HF conditions may
be expected for low latitudes for the next three days with the
possibility of minor to mild MUF depressions for mid to high
latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jan 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 106
Jan 89
Feb 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jan 85 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values with some periods
of minor enhancements in Northern AUS/Equatorial regions. Depressed
MUF's observed during local day and night for Southern AUS/NZ
regions and disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions. Mostly
normal HF conditions may be expected for the next three days
with the possibility of minor to mild MUF depressions on 06Jan
for mid-high latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jan
Speed: 405 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 55600 K Bz: -6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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