[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 23 Feb 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 24 10:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 FEBRUARY - 26 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Feb: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 125/78
COMMENT: Low levels of solar activity have been observed over
the last 24 hours, the biggest event of this period being a C1.1
event that peaked at 0026 UT. As anticipated, the solar wind
speed showed a gradual increase from 340 to 440 km/s over the
UT day today due to the effect of coronal hole. The Bz component
of IMF varied between +/-10 nT during this period. This coronal
hole effect is expected to keep the solar wind stream strengthened
for the next 2 days. Solar activity is expected to stay at low
levels for the next three days with the possibility of some C-class
activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Feb : A K
Australian Region 13 23333323
Cocos Island 10 23222332
Darwin 14 23333324
Townsville 13 23333323
Learmonth 13 23323423
Alice Springs 13 23333323
Norfolk Island 17 25433322
Culgoora 13 23333323
Gingin 13 23323333
Camden 13 23333323
Canberra 13 23333323
Melbourne 14 23333333
Launceston 21 24434434
Hobart 15 23433333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Feb :
Macquarie Island 5 21------
Casey 25 36543222
Mawson 34 44544455
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Feb :
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Darwin 9 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 1111 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Feb 6 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Feb 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity
were observed today with isolate active periods recorded at some
high latitude locations. Geomagnetic activity may be expected
to stay at quiet to unsettled levels on 24 and 25 February and
at mostly quiet levels on 26 February. In the IPS magnetometer
data for 23 Feb, a weak (13nT) impulse was observed at 1745UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor MUF enhancements were recorded at some low and
mid latitude locations over the last 24 hours with HF conditions
mostly normal in most locations. Mostly normal HF conditions
may be expected for the next 3 days with the possibility of minor
MUF depressions on high latitudes on 24 and 25 February and minor
MUF enhancements on 26 February on low and mid latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Feb 119
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 104
Feb 90
Mar 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Feb 110 Near predicted monthly values
25 Feb 110 Near predicted monthly values
26 Feb 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor MUF enhancements were recorded at some low and
mid latitude locations over the last 24 hours with HF conditions
mostly normal in most locations. Mostly normal HF conditions
may be expected for the next 3 days with the possibility of minor
MUF depressions in Southern Aus/NZ regions on 24 and 25 February
and minor MUF enhancements on 26 February in the Northern regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Feb
Speed: 314 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 45900 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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