[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 February 15 issued 2346 UT on 22 Feb 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 23 10:46:33 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 FEBRUARY - 25 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:*YELLOW* ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Feb: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Feb 24 Feb 25 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 130/84
COMMENT: There are 5 active regions presently visible on the
solar disk although they are small and magnetically simple. Very
low level flare activity was observed during 22 February. Very
low to low level flare activity is expected for 23 February.
CME activity observed during 22 February is not expected to be
geoeffective. Elevated proton flux levels have remained below
the S1 event threshold during 22 February. Solar wind speeds
have remained low during 22 February and the IMF Bz component
has fluctuated around neutral ranging between approximately +5
and -5nT. Solar wind conditions are expected to increase slightly
during 23 February due to a weak coronal hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 21111112
Cocos Island 2 1101120-
Darwin 5 22112212
Townsville 5 22112212
Learmonth 5 22111212
Alice Springs 4 2210220-
Norfolk Island 3 21011102
Culgoora 4 21111112
Gingin 4 2101122-
Camden 4 21111112
Canberra 3 2111111-
Melbourne 4 21111112
Launceston 6 22112113
Hobart 4 22111112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Feb :
Macquarie Island 4 1202211-
Casey 13 3443111-
Mawson 15 4442221-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Feb :
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 3311 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Feb 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled with the chance of
isolated active periods
24 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet
to unsettled for the next few days with the chance of isolated
active periods for 23 February under the influence of an anticipated
weak coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected
for the next few days with some slightly degraded conditions
possible at times particularly for high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Feb 107
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 104
Feb 90
Mar 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Feb 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Feb 105 Near predicted monthly values
25 Feb 105 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values to enhanced for 23 February with isolated slight depressions
possible at times particularly for far southern regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Feb
Speed: 341 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 51400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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