[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 21 Feb 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 22 10:30:52 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 FEBRUARY - 24 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Feb: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Feb 23 Feb 24 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: There are 5 active regions presently visible on the
solar disk although they are small and magnetically simple. Only
minor low level flare activity was observed during 21 February.
Low level flare activity is expected for 22 February with the
very small chance of moderate activity. A relatively impressive
partial halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery around 0920UT
(and C3 around 10UT) on February 21 although there does not appear
to be any front side associated solar event. The CME therefore
appears to have originated from the back-side, most likely around
the south-west limb and is not expected to be geoeffective. This
activity also appears to be associated with the small increase
in energetic solar proton flux, although flux levels have not
yet crossed the S1 event threshold. Solar wind speeds have remained
low during 21 February and the IMF Bz component has fluctuated
around neutral ranging between approximately +5 and -5nT. Solar
wind conditions are expected to increase slightly during 22-23
February due to a coronal hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 21112112
Cocos Island 2 111100--
Darwin 4 21111212
Townsville 4 21112102
Learmonth 4 22111112
Alice Springs 2 1111110-
Norfolk Island 3 10012112
Culgoora 4 21112112
Gingin 3 211110--
Camden 4 21112112
Canberra 3 2111210-
Melbourne 4 21112112
Launceston 4 21112112
Hobart 4 11112112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Feb :
Macquarie Island 3 120121--
Casey 12 2443220-
Mawson 11 4422220-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Feb :
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 0221 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Feb 12 Quiet to unsettled with the chance of isolated
active levels at high latitudes
23 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet
to unsettled for the next few days with the chance of isolated
active periods for 22 February under the influence of an anticipated
weak coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected
for the next few days with some slightly degraded conditions
possible at times particularly for high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Feb 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 104
Feb 90
Mar 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Feb 105 Near predicted monthly values
23 Feb 100 Near predicted monthly values
24 Feb 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values over the next few days with isolated slight depressions
possible at times particularly for southern Australian regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Feb
Speed: 352 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 31600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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