[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 24 Feb 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 25 10:30:44 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 FEBRUARY - 27 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Feb: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Feb 26 Feb 27 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 130/84
COMMENT: Low levels of solar activity have been observed over
the last 24 hours, the biggest event of this period being a C1.4
event that peaked at 1057 UT. Due to the effect of a coronal
hole, the solar wind speed showed a a further increase from 440
to nearly 550 km/s today. The Bz component of IMF varied approximately
between +/-13 nT during this period. This coronal hole effect
is expected to keep the solar wind stream strengthened for the
next 2 days. Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels
for the next three days with the possibility of some C-class
activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 24 Feb : A K
Australian Region 14 34333223
Cocos Island 9 33232212
Darwin 14 34333223
Townsville 14 34333223
Learmonth 13 44332212
Alice Springs 14 34333213
Norfolk Island 11 33333212
Culgoora 13 24333223
Gingin 14 44332213
Camden 13 24333223
Canberra 11 23333222
Melbourne 14 34333223
Launceston 14 34333223
Hobart 13 34333222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Feb :
Macquarie Island 26 44555212
Casey 21 54443213
Mawson 50 67533326
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Feb :
Hobart 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Darwin 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 15 3233 3423
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Feb 10 Quiet to Active
26 Feb 7 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Feb 4 Mostly Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to active levels of geomagnetic activity
were observed today. Geomagnetic activity may be expected to
stay at quiet to active levels on 25 February and then gradually
decline to unsettled levels on 26 February and to mostly quiet
levels on 27 February as the coronal hole effect is expected
to weaken through these days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: As anticipated minor MUF depressions were recorded at
some mid and high latitude locations over the last 24 hours with
HF conditions mostly normal in the low latitude regions. Nearly
similar HF conditions may be expected on 25 February, with the
conditions gradually returning to more normal levels over the
following two days thereafter.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Feb 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 104
Feb 90
Mar 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
26 Feb 85 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
27 Feb 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: As anticipated minor MUF depressions were recorded at
some Southern Aus/NZ locations over the last 24 hours with HF
conditions mostly normal in the Northern Aus/NZ regions. Nearly
similar HF conditions may be expected on 25 February, with the
conditions gradually returning to more normal levels over the
following two days thereafter.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Feb
Speed: 391 km/sec Density: 15.6 p/cc Temp: 76000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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