[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 February 15 issued 2331 UT on 14 Feb 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 15 10:31:12 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Feb: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb
Activity Very low to low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 130/84
COMMENT: Solar flare activity remained Very Low during 14Feb.
All numbered regions on the visible disk appear relatively stable.
Conditions are likely to remain Very Low for the next 24 hours
with the chance of C-class events and a slight chance of an isolated
M-class event. The dark large filament located in the SW quadrant
remained stable. No Earth-directed CMEs observed in available
LASCO imagery. ACE solar wind observations show the solar wind
speed remained ~ 350 km/s. The Bz component fluctuated between
about +/-5nT for most of 14 Feb. Elevated solar wind speed from
a coronal hole may take effect late today, 15 Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Feb : A K
Australian Region 1 11010001
Cocos Island 0 01010000
Darwin 2 11111001
Townsville 2 11110011
Learmonth 3 11110003
Alice Springs 0 10000000
Norfolk Island 0 00000011
Culgoora 1 11110001
Gingin 0 11000000
Camden 1 11110001
Canberra 0 00000000
Melbourne 1 11010000
Launceston 2 11112001
Hobart 1 11000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 13 35421101
Mawson 6 24211100
Davis 56 23321191
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Feb :
Darwin 18 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0001 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Feb 15 Quiet to Active
16 Feb 12 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet during UT day 14 Feb.
Conditions are likely to rise to Unsettled levels late today
15 Feb with the possibility of an isolated Active period due
to the arrival of faster solar wind.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected
for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Feb 125
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 104
Feb 90
Mar 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Feb 100 Near predicted monthly values
17 Feb 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian region HF propagation conditions are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values. Possible occasional
disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions over the
next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Feb
Speed: 325 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 26800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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