[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 15 Feb 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 16 10:30:57 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Feb: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb
Activity Very low to low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar flare activity remained Very Low during 15Feb.
All numbered regions on the visible disk appear either stable
or in decline. Conditions are likely to remain Very Low for the
next 24 hours with the chance of C-class events and a slight
chance of an isolated M-class event. No Earth-directed CMEs observed
in available LASCO imagery. ACE solar wind conditions since around
0600UT, indicate some influence of the coronal hole high speed
stream, with an enhancement in speed (but still light ~350Km/s),
Bt up to 10nT and Bz component fluctuating in the range +/-10nT.
Further wind speeds and magnetic field strength is expected for
the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 23222111
Cocos Island 4 12212110
Darwin 7 23222112
Townsville 6 23222111
Learmonth 7 23222122
Alice Springs 6 13222111
Norfolk Island 4 12112112
Culgoora 6 23222111
Gingin 6 22222121
Camden 6 13222111
Canberra 3 12212100
Melbourne 5 12222111
Launceston 8 23223211
Hobart 5 22222111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Feb :
Macquarie Island 6 22123210
Casey 17 34533222
Mawson 14 23333341
Davis 11 33333221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0100 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Feb 16 Quiet to Active
17 Feb 12 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled during
UT day 15 Feb. Expect Unsettled to isolated cases of Active levels
to prevail over the next 24 hours due to faster solar wind.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected
for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Feb 128
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 104
Feb 90
Mar 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Feb 110 Near predicted monthly values
17 Feb 110 Near predicted monthly values
18 Feb 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian region HF propagation conditions are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values. Possible occasional
disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions over the
next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Feb
Speed: 326 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 37500 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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