[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 13 Feb 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 14 10:30:46 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Feb: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 135/89 140/94
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Very Low during 13 Feb with
a single B9.6 flare from region 2282(N10E16). This region remain
the most significant region on the visible disk. All numbered
regions on the visible disk appear stable or in decline. Conditions
are likely to remain Very Low for the next 24 hours with the
chance of C-class evens and a slight chance of an isolated M-class
event. No Earth-directed CMEs observed on 13Feb. ACE solar wind
observations show the solar wind speed remained ~ 350 km/s. The
Bz component fluctuated between about +/-4nT for most of 13 Feb.
Elevated solar wind speed from a coronal hole may take effect
late day two, 15 Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Feb : A K
Australian Region 1 00111101
Cocos Island 0 00010000
Darwin 1 01101101
Townsville 2 01111111
Learmonth 1 00011101
Alice Springs 1 00101001
Norfolk Island 1 00011001
Culgoora 3 011112-1
Gingin 1 00111000
Camden 3 11112101
Canberra 0 00001000
Melbourne 2 00112101
Launceston 3 11112101
Hobart 1 01111001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 00020000
Casey 11 34422111
Mawson 5 22212211
Davis 7 -3322111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Feb :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Feb 7 Quiet
15 Feb 15 Quiet to Active
16 Feb 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet during UT day 13 Feb.
Expect mostly Quiet conditions to prevail until late 15 Feb when
activity levels will likely increase due to the arrival of faster
solar wind.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected
for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Feb 144
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 104
Feb 90
Mar 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Feb 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Feb 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Feb 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian region HF propagation conditions are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values or slightly enhanced
for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Feb
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 31600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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