[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 12 Feb 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 13 10:30:44 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 FEBRUARY - 15 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Feb: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 130/84
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was low during 12 Feb. The largest
flare of 12 Feb was a C6 event from region 2280(S06W81) at 0212U
with an associated narrow CME first observed in LASCO-C2 imagery
~~0236UT. This CME is not expected to be geoeffective. No other
Earth-directed CMEs observed on 12Feb. There are currently 3
numbered regions on the visible disk of which region 2282(N11E31)
is relatively stable and inactive while regions 2280 and 2281(N13W34)
are in decline . Solar activity is expected to be at Low levels
for the next 24 hours with the chance of an M-class flare. GONG
H alpha images show the dark large filament located in the SW
quadrant appears stable at the time of this report. The solar
wind speed remains light and steady near 350 km/s over the UT
day. The Bz component fluctuated between about +/-5nT for most
of 12 Feb. The solar wind speed may start to increase late 15
Feb due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 21112111
Cocos Island 4 23111110
Darwin 4 21112112
Townsville 4 21112112
Learmonth 4 21112111
Alice Springs 3 21102111
Norfolk Island 2 110-----
Culgoora 4 21112111
Gingin 4 21112111
Camden 3 21111111
Canberra 1 11001101
Melbourne 4 21112211
Launceston 6 22112222
Hobart 5 22112212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Feb :
Macquarie Island 3 11003210
Casey 14 35332122
Mawson 15 42223343
Davis 14 333242--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1300 3111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Feb 7 Quiet
14 Feb 7 Quiet
15 Feb 15 Quiet to Active.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet during UT day 12 Feb.
Expect mostly Quiet conditions to prevail until late 15 Feb when
activity levels will likely increase due to the arrival of faster
solar wind.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected
for the next 24 hours. There is the chance of short-wave fadeouts.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Feb 140
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 70% 13-18UT.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 104
Feb 90
Mar 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Feb 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Feb 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Feb 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian region HF propagation conditions are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values or mildly enhanced
for the next few days. There is the chance of short-wave fadeouts
over the next 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Feb
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 36600 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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