[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 11 Feb 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 12 10:30:42 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Feb: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 122/75 126/79
COMMENT: Only a few minor C-class flares were observed over the
UT day, 11 Feb most originating in AR2282(N11E31). This region
has increased in area and magnetic complexity and maintains potential
for further C- to M-class activity. Solar background X-ray flux
has declined to B levels. GONG H alpha images show the large
filament East AR2280(S08W64) remains stable. A small filament
in the SE quadrant lifted off after 17UT. A CME has not been
confirmed from available LASCO imagery, but given the location
it is unlikely that this CME is earth directed. No other Earth-directed
CMEs observed on 11 Feb. Solar wind speed was relatively steady
at about 350 km/s over the UT day. The IMF Bz component fluctuated
+/-5nT with sustained periods of negative Bz ~02UT, and 10-12UT.
Solar wind speeds may become slightly enhanced later today, 12
Feb if CME (associated with M2.4 flare 9/2335UT) interacts with
the Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Feb: Quiet with one
isolated Unsettled period.
Estimated Indices 11 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 13112001
Cocos Island 2 221-1000
Darwin 6 23211112
Townsville 4 23112001
Learmonth 3 22111001
Alice Springs 4 23111001
Norfolk Island 2 12002011
Culgoora 4 13112001
Gingin 3 22112001
Camden 4 13112001
Canberra 1 02002000
Melbourne 3 12112001
Launceston 5 13122101
Hobart 6 14112101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Feb :
Macquarie Island 5 12014100
Casey 13 44432101
Mawson 12 35223200
Davis 13 34334210
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Feb :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 0200 1123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Feb 12 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Feb 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet during UT day
11 Feb. Sustained negative IMF Bz component early UT day resulted
in one isolated Unsettled period ~0300 UT. Geomagnetic conditions
may rise to Unsettled levels late today 12 Feb with the possibility
of an isolated Active period if 9 Feb CME interacts with the
Earth.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected
for the next 24 hours. There is the chance of short-wave fadeouts.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Feb 143
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 104
Feb 90
Mar 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Feb 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Feb 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Feb 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian region HF propagation conditions are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values or mildly enhanced
for the next few days. There is the chance of short-wave fadeouts
over the forecast period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Feb
Speed: 381 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 43200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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