[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 10 Feb 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 11 10:30:32 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 FEBRUARY - 13 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.4 09/2339UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Feb: 141/95
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the UT day, 10February.
Several C-class and one long duration M2.4 flares were observed
during this period from regions 2282(N14E51) and 2280(S08 W51).
The M2.4 flare from region 2282 started at 9/2259UT, peaked at
2335 UT and ended at 10/0014 UT with associated Type II (shock
speed ~11000km/s) and a hallo CME first observed in LASCO-C2
imagery at 9/2324UT. This CME may have an Earthward directed
component. There are currently 3 numbered regions on the visible
disk of which regions 2280 and 2282 continue to show signs of
growth while region 2281 is in decline . Solar activity is expected
to be at Low levels for the next three days with the chance of
M-class flares specially from regions 2280 and 2282 which are
currently the largest and the most active on the visible disk.
GONG H alpha images show the large filament East AR2280 remains
in place. Solar wind speeds remained around 400Km/s. The interplanetary
magnetic field Bz component ranged from +/-5 nT. Expect the solar
wind speed to remain around 400 km/s or slightly below over the
UT day 11 Feb. Possibly becoming slightly enhanced from late
on Feb 12 if CME (associated with M2.4 flare 9/2335UT) interacts
with the Earth.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 12111122
Cocos Island 2 11011111
Darwin 4 12111212
Townsville 5 12111213
Learmonth 4 12111122
Alice Springs 3 11111112
Norfolk Island 4 21101122
Culgoora 4 12111122
Gingin 4 12101122
Camden 4 12111122
Canberra 2 01101112
Launceston 6 12212222
Hobart 4 02112122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Feb :
Macquarie Island 3 02002012
Casey 14 34422223
Mawson 17 24213245
Davis 14 3432332-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Feb :
Darwin 7 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 3000 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Feb 7 Mostly Quiet.
12 Feb 12 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Feb 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions have been Quiet in the Australian
region for the UT day, 10 Feb. Expect mostly Quiet levels to
prevail over the next 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions may rise
to Unsettled levels on 12-13 Feb with the possibility of isolated
Active periods.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected
for the next 24 hours. There is the chance of short-wave fadeouts.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Feb 130
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available .
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 104
Feb 90
Mar 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Feb 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Feb 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Feb 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian region maximum useable frequencies for HF
communications are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to slightly enhanced for the next 24 hours. There is the chance
of short-wave fadeouts over the forecast period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Feb
Speed: 446 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 87100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list