[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 26 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 27 10:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 DECEMBER - 29 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Dec: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Dec 28 Dec 29 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: The solar activity was at low levels for the UT day,
26 Dec. Only C-class flares were observed during the past 24
hours and all of these were from Region 2473. This region is
currently located at S22E13 and would soon be approaching a more
direct earth facing position. Region 2472, which was active over
the past two days, did not produce any notable flares and continue
to show signs of decay. The coronal mass ejection (CME) observed
around 24/0636 UT associated with eruption from Region 2473 could
cause a weak glancing blow at Earth within the next 24 hrs. The
modelled propagation speed of this CME is around 750 km/s. The
low energy protons (1-100 keV ranges) absorbed by ACE have enhanced
by about an order of magnitude over the last 24 hrs, a possible
indicator of the arrival of ions associated with the CME. No
new earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery for the UT day. The 2-day outlook (27-28 Dec) is for
low solar activity with C-class flares likely and a very low
chance of M class flares. The solar winds in the past 24 hours
has remained steady between 500 and 600 km/s. The Bz component
of the IMF fluctuated between +/-8 nT and Bt was between 5 and
10 nT. These moderately high solar wind speeds are the effects
of multiple coronal holes and the possible arrival of CME. The
24 hour outlook (27 Dec) is for the solar winds to remain at
these moderately elevated levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Dec : A K
Australian Region 10 22223233
Cocos Island 8 22222223
Darwin 7 22212223
Townsville 10 22223233
Learmonth 12 32223234
Alice Springs 8 22213223
Norfolk Island 9 22213133
Gingin 12 32223234
Camden 10 22223233
Canberra 9 22213233
Hobart - --------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Dec :
Macquarie Island 13 22215323
Casey 37 56543335
Mawson 31 44433356
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Dec :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 62 (Active)
Canberra 43 (Unsettled)
Melbourne 85 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1131 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
28 Dec 12 Unsettled
29 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 62 was issued on 26 December
and is current for 27-28 Dec. The geomagnetic conditions were
mostly quiet and at times reached minor storm levels in the high
latitude regions during the last 24 hours (UT day 26 Dec). The
2-day outlook (27-28 Dec) is for the geomagnetic conditions to
be mostly unsettled and at times could reach minor storm levels
in the high latitude regions. These conditions are forecasted
due to the possible combined effects of multiple coronal holes
and the glancing blow from the December 24 CME associated with
eruption from Region 2473. A favourable IMF Bz condition may
lead to aurora sightings from Tasmania during the local night.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Near monthly predicted HF conditions are expected over
most regions within the next 48 hrs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Dec 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 55
Dec 63
Jan 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Dec 75 Near predicted monthly values
28 Dec 80 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 26 Dec were slightly above
the predicted monthly values. The outlook (27 Dec) is for MUFs
to remain strong, mostly remaining slightly above the expected
predicted monthly values. The MUF conditions are forecasted due
to strong incoming ionising solar flux radiation. There could
be possible degradation of MUFs on UT day 28 and 29 Dec, if minor
to major storms do occur within the next 24 hrs associated with
the CME.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Dec
Speed: 504 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 176000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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