[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 27 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 28 10:30:27 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 DECEMBER - 30 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Dec: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Dec 29 Dec 30 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: The solar activity was at low levels for the UT day,
27 Dec. Only weak C-class flares were observed during the past
24 hours and these were from Region 2473 and Region 2472. These
regions are now located in a direct earth facing position. Region
2472 (N04W05) has undergone a minor resurgence and restarted
producing flares compared to yesterday when Region 2472 did not
produce any notable flares. However, the most threatening region
for stronger M-class flaring is Region 2473 (S22W01). The coronal
mass ejection (CME) associated with eruption from Region 2473
at 24/0636 UT appear to have caused a weak enhancement in solar
wind conditions at Earth around 26/2000 UT. The solar wind peaked
to 640 km/s at the arrival of the glancing blow from the CME
and then quickly resided a lower speed of around 500 km/s. No
new earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery for the UT day. The 2-day outlook (28-29 Dec) is for
low solar activity with C-class flares likely and a very low
chance of M class flares. The solar winds in the past 24 hours
has remained steady between 500 and 600 km/s. The Bz component
of the IMF was weak for the UT day 27 Dec and fluctuated between
+/-4 nT. Bt was below 8 nT throughout the UT day. The 2-day outlook
(28-29 Dec) is for the solar winds to gradually drop toward the
ambient levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Dec : A K
Australian Region 9 21233223
Cocos Island 7 21223222
Darwin 9 21233223
Townsville 11 22333223
Learmonth 12 21234323
Alice Springs 9 21233223
Norfolk Island 7 21223122
Gingin 10 22234222
Camden 10 22333123
Canberra 10 22233133
Hobart - --------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Dec :
Macquarie Island 24 22465312
Casey 23 45444322
Mawson 24 44543342
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Dec :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 77 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12 2222 3324
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Dec 12 Unsettled
29 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 62 was issued on 26 December
and is current for 27-28 Dec. The geomagnetic conditions were
mostly quiet. Between 0700-1000 UT, minor storm levels were experienced
over the Australian region with the Australian DST dipping to
a minimum of -30 nT. The 2-day outlook (28-29 Dec) is for the
geomagnetic conditions to be mostly unsettled and at times could
reach minor storm levels in the high latitude regions. These
conditions are forecasted due to the moderately high levels of
solar wind speeds. In such conditions, a strong southward IMF
Bz may lead to aurora sightings from Tasmania during the local
night.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Near monthly predicted HF conditions are expected over
most regions within the next 48 hrs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Dec 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
No data available
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 55
Dec 63
Jan 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Dec 60 Near predicted monthly values
29 Dec 55 Near predicted monthly values
30 Dec 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 27 Dec were near monthly
values. The two day outlook (28-29 Dec) is for MUFs to remain
near the predicted monthly values, with some weak degradation
possible. The weak degradations are due to unsettled geomagnetic
conditions over the past few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Dec
Speed: 527 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 178000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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