[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 25 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 26 10:30:38 EST 2015


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 DECEMBER - 28 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Dec: 126/79


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Dec             27 Dec             28 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             120/72

COMMENT: The solar activity was at low levels for the UT day, 
25 Dec. Only C-class flares were observed during the past 24 
hours, with the strongest C6.9 observed at 25/1749 UT from Region 
2472. Results from our model run for the coronal mass ejection 
(CME) observed around 24/0636 UT associated with eruption from 
Region 2473 (S16E38) suggests that this CME may cause a weak 
glancing blow at Earth on early UT day 27 Dec. The propagation 
speed of the CME is around 750 km/s. No new earth-directed CMEs 
were observed in available coronagraph imagery for the UT day. 
The 2-day outlook (26-27 Dec) is for low solar activity with 
C-class flares likely and a very low possibility of M class flares. 
The solar winds in the past 24 hours has remained steady around 
500 km/hr. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between +/-7 
nT and Bt was between 5 and 10 nT. These moderately high solar 
wind speeds are the lingering effects of the high speed streams 
emanating from a southern hemisphere coronal hole. The 24 hour 
outlook (26 Dec) is for the solar winds to gradually trend towards 
ambient levels as the effects of the coronal hole wanes. Latter 
on UT day 27 Dec, there may be weak enhancements in solar winds 
due to the possible arrival of the glancing blow from the 24 
Dec CME.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 25 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22223222
      Cocos Island         4   12111211
      Darwin               6   21213212
      Townsville           8   22223222
      Learmonth            9   22323222
      Alice Springs        7   21223212
      Norfolk Island       5   12212221
      Gingin               8   22223222
      Camden               9   22323222
      Canberra             6   32212111
      Hobart               -   --------    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     9   22314211
      Casey               27   55543233
      Mawson              17   33433324

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Dec : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              57   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            73   (Active)
      Melbourne           98   (Minor storm)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   2231 3212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Dec    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet and at 
times reached unsettled levels during the last 24 hours (UT day 
25 Dec). The 2-day outlook (26-27 Dec) is for the geomagnetic 
conditions to possibly remain mostly quiet with occasional unsettled 
periods. There is also the isolated possibility of minor storms 
since the solar wind speeds are still moderately high and so 
a favourable IMF Bz could trigger minor storms. A further a possible 
weak enhancements in geomagnetic activity could occur on the 
UT day 27 Dec with the arrival of the glancing blow from the 
24 Dec CME

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Near monthly predicted HF conditions are expected over 
most regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Dec    70

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      55
Dec      63
Jan      63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Dec    75    Near predicted monthly values
27 Dec    80    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Dec    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 84 was issued on 24 
December and is current for 24-26 Dec. Observed MUF's for the 
UT day 25 Dec were slightly above the predicted monthly values. 
The 2-day outlook (25-26 Dec) is for MUFs to remain strong, mostly 
remaining slightly above the expected predicted monthly values. 
The MUF conditions are forecasted due to strong incoming ionising 
solar flux radiation.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Dec
Speed: 492 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:   176000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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