[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 24 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 25 10:30:34 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 DECEMBER - 27 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0213UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Dec: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Dec 26 Dec 27 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: The solar activity reached moderate levels for the UT
day, 24 Dec. This again was associated with the active regions
2472 (N04E36) and 2473 (S22E36). One M-class flare and two C-class
flares were observed during the past 24 hours, with the strongest
M1.1 observed at 24/0212 UT from Region 2473. Results from our
model runs for the coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with
the M4.7 observed at 23/0040 UT from Region 2473 suggests that
this CME will not have an influence on Earth. Another CME was
observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery starting around 24/0636 UT
associated with eruption from Region 2473. More updates on this
second CME will be provided upon the completion of the model
runs. Both active regions, Region 2472 and Region 2473, continue
to show strong flaring potential and are rotating towards more
direct Earth facing position. The 2-day outlook (25-26 Dec) is
for low to moderate solar activity with C-class flares likely
and a chance of M class flares. The solar winds in the past 24
hours had gradually enhanced from 450 km/s to 600 km/s. The Bz
component of the IMF fluctuated between +/-5 nT and Bt was steady
at around 8 nT. These moderately high solar winds are in response
to high speed streams emanating from a southern hemisphere coronal
hole. The outlook is for the solar winds to remain at elevated
levels on 25 Dec and then gradually trend towards ambient levels
as the effects of the coronal hole wanes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 22223122
Cocos Island 5 22112122
Darwin 7 21223122
Townsville 8 22323122
Learmonth 11 32233223
Alice Springs 8 21223123
Norfolk Island 7 12223122
Gingin 10 32233123
Camden 9 22323222
Canberra 7 22223122
Hobart 12 233241--
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Dec :
Macquarie Island 17 23226222
Casey 34 46644233
Mawson 23 34534343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Dec :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2222 2213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Dec 14 Unsettled to Active
26 Dec 12 Unsettled
27 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet and at
times reached unsettled levels during the last 24 hours (UT day
24 Dec). The 2-day outlook (25-26 Dec) is geomagnetic conditions
could reach active levels and isolated minor storms are possible.
These conditions are forecasted due to moderately high speed
solar winds streaming from a southern hemisphere coronal hole.
A favourable IMF Bz may lead to aurora sightings from Tasmania
during the local night of 25 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal-fair Poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Near monthly predicted HF conditions are expected over
most regions. There is a chance of isolated shortwave fadeouts
for the next two days due to flaring potential from active sunspot
regions (Region 2472 and 2473).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Dec 58
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 55
Dec 63
Jan 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Dec 60 Near predicted monthly values
26 Dec 65 Near predicted monthly values
27 Dec 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 84 was issued on 24
December and is current for 24-26 Dec. Observed MUF's for the
UT day 24 Dec were near the predicted monthly values. There is
a chance of isolated shortwave fadeouts for the next two days
due to flaring potential from active sunspot regions (Region
2472 and 2473). The 2-day outlook (25-26 Dec) is for MUFs to
remain strong, near the expected predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Dec
Speed: 452 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 111000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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