[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 18 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 19 10:30:32 EST 2015 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 DECEMBER - 21 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Dec: 117/69


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Dec             20 Dec             21 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: Active region 2469 (N17E04) produced a C4 level flare 
at 0509UT. No other significant X-ray activity observed Dec 18. 
A disappearing solar filament was reported 18/01-0430UT in the 
NE quadrant. A very weak CME, mostly E-directed but with possibly 
some Earth-directed component was observed in LASCO imagery about 
this time. Any geoeffective consequence is likely to be minor. 
Solar wind speed was steady at around 400 km/s. The IMF Bz component 
was mostly neutral with minor fluctuations. There was a brief 
interval of Southward bias to -5nT 19-22UT. Solar wind proton 
fluxes observed at the ACE satellite platform became elevated 
after 06UT, which can be a precursor to geomagnetic disturbance. 
A sequence of mild to moderate solar wind shocks is anticipated 
early in the UT day Dec 19.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 18 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21110112
      Cocos Island         2   21110002
      Darwin               2   11100111
      Townsville           3   11110112
      Learmonth            4   21111112
      Alice Springs        2   21100101
      Norfolk Island       1   10000011
      Gingin               3   21110102
      Camden               4   21111112
      Canberra             1   10000011
      Hobart               3   21110111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     2   21100011
      Casey               22   54533223
      Mawson              14   33333233

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   0101 1232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Dec    40    Minor Storm
20 Dec    15    Unsettled to Active
21 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 60 was issued on 17 December 
and is current for 18-19 Dec. Regional geomagnetic conditions 
were Quiet at low to mid latitudes and Unsettled at high latitudes. 
A sequence of mild to moderate solar wind shocks is anticipated 
early in the UT day Dec 19 bringing Minor to possibly Major Storm 
conditions on day one of the forecast period. Disturbance may 
persist at Unsettled to Active levels on day two, declining on 
day three.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Dec      Fair           Fair-poor      Poor
20 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Disturbance expected at high latitudes Dec 19-20 due 
to anticipated geomagnetic activity.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Dec    69

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      55
Dec      63
Jan      63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Dec    70    Near predicted monthly values
20 Dec    45    Near predicted monthly values
21 Dec    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Generally moderately enhanced ionospheric conditions 
observed throughout the region Dec 18. Widespread mild depressions 
observed after local dawn Dec 19. Anticipated geomagnetic activity 
early on day one may result in variable conditions at low to 
mid latitudes and periods of disturbance at high latitudes days 
one and two. Increased absorption possible Antarctic region due 
to elevated solar wind proton fluxes.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Dec
Speed: 449 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:   182000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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