[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 17 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 18 10:30:29 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 DECEMBER - 20 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Dec: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Dec 19 Dec 20 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Two minor C-class flares observed Dec 17, both from
AR 2470 (N14E20). Solar wind speed was steady at around 400 km/s.
The IMF Bz component was neutral until 08UT, then exhibited moderate
fluctuations to +/-5nT, with some periods of sustained negative
bias. Further analysis of the two weak halo CME's observed Dec
16 suggests both are front-side events and may impact the Earth
in close succession late Dec 18 to early Dec 19.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 12112232
Cocos Island 4 11101231
Darwin 5 12111123
Townsville 8 22112233
Learmonth 6 12022232
Alice Springs 6 12112232
Norfolk Island 7 12011134
Gingin 7 11112332
Camden 6 12112232
Canberra 7 32112132
Hobart 7 12122232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Dec :
Macquarie Island 7 11123322
Casey 21 44443333
Mawson 20 22233553
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 3200 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Dec 12 Quiet. Possible Storm late UT day.
19 Dec 40 Minor Storm
20 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 60 was issued on 17 December
and is current for 18-19 Dec. Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed
at low to mid latitudes, with an Unsettled period 18-21UT, extending
to 24 UT at some stations. Unsettled to Active conditions observed
throughout the UT day at high latitudes. Expect Quiet conditions
on day one. Late on day one to early on Day two mild to moderate
solar wind shocks are expected due to two weak halo CME's observed
in succession on Dec 16. Geomagnetic conditions are expected
to reach minor to briefly major storm levels on Dec 19.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Dec Fair Fair-poor Poor
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Disturbance expected at high latitudes Dec 19-20 due
to anticipated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Dec 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Equatorial spread-F observed local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 55
Dec 63
Jan 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Dec 65 Near predicted monthly values
19 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
20 Dec 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Generally moderately enhanced ionospheric conditions
observed throughout the region Dec 17. Expect similar conditions
day one of the forecast period. Anticipated geomagnetic activity
late day one to early day two may result in variable conditions
at low to mid latitudes and periods of disturbance at high latitudes
days two and three.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Dec
Speed: 522 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 213000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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