[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 16 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 17 10:30:25 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 DECEMBER - 19 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Dec: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Dec 18 Dec 19 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: An isolated C6 level flare was produced by active region
2468 (S14W02) at 0903UT. A weak semi-halo CME was observed in
LASCO imagery after 10UT, probably in association with this flare.
This event may produce a weak solar wind shock Dec 18-19. A second
slightly stronger halo CME was observed after 16UT. This is probably
a far-side event. Solar wind parameters were elevated early in
the UT day due to persistence of a coronal hole wind stream.
Wind speeds reached 600 km/s and IMF Bz reached -10nT early in
the UT day. Solar wind parameters rapidly declined after 05UT,
with wind speed steadily falling to 400 km/s at the time of report
issue. IMF Bz remained mildly positive for the remainder of the
UT day, limiting magnetic geoeffectivity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 32100011
Cocos Island 2 22110001
Darwin 3 32100001
Townsville 4 32100012
Learmonth 3 32100001
Alice Springs 3 32000001
Norfolk Island 2 22100011
Gingin 3 32100011
Camden 3 32100011
Canberra 5 32000222
Hobart 4 33100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Dec :
Macquarie Island 5 33110011
Casey 19 45531112
Mawson 11 44321112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 12 4411 3310
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Dec 5 Quiet
18 Dec 5 Quiet
19 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters were elevated early in the UT
day Dec 16 due to persistence of a coronal hole wind stream.
Geomagnetic conditions were Unsettled at most stations 00-06UT,
with Active intervals at high latitudes. Solar wind parameters
then rapidly declined, resulting in mostly Quiet conditions for
the remainder of the day. Expect mostly Quiet conditions days
one to three. A weak solar wind shock may occur Dec 18-19, with
minor transitory magnetic disturbance.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Dec 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mildly depressed local day, otherwise
near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced 15-20%.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Townsville enhanced 20% around local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values
to mildly enhanced.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Scott Base no data.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 55
Dec 63
Jan 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Dec 60 Near predicted monthly values
18 Dec 60 Near predicted monthly values
19 Dec 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 80 was issued on 13 December
and is current for 15-17 Dec. Ionospheric support recovered strongly
Dec 16, despite some geomagnetic activity early in the UT day.
Periods of strong sporadic-E conditions observed at Perth local
evening. Most stations moderately enhanced around local dawn
Dec 17. Expect mostly normal conditions next three days. Occasional
periods of disturbance possible Antarctic region day one.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Dec
Speed: 523 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 167000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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