[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 December 15 issued 2334 UT on 19 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 20 10:34:15 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 DECEMBER - 22 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Dec: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Dec 21 Dec 22 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity on Dec 19 was low. An impulsive C3 level
flare from AR2468 (S15W54) peaked at 0204UT. A disappearing solar
filament was reported in the SE quadrant in the period 0330-0850UT.
A Tyoe II radio sweep was reported around 13UT in association
with a C1.7 level flare of unknown origin peaking at 1326UT.
A strong E-directed CME was observed in LASCO imagery after 1350UT
followed by a lengthy data gap, inhibiting further analysis.
A C4 level flare was observed at around 2230UT. Solar wind speed
was steady at 400 km/s until after 15UT. A moderate shock was
observed in the solar wind at 1528UT on 19 Dec. Post-shock solar
wind speed increased to around 500 km/s. The IMF Bz was neutral
prior to the shock, followed by minor to moderate fluctuations
about neutral with no significant sustained period of negative
bias. A second minor to moderate shock is possible early in the
UT day Dec 20. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement
event beginning 19/0200UT, which can be a precursor to increased
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 19 Dec : A K
Australian Region 12 11111444
Cocos Island 11 10101444
Darwin 10 11111443
Townsville 15 21111544
Learmonth 17 11111545
Alice Springs 13 20111543
Norfolk Island 8 11010433
Gingin 13 11121543
Camden 12 11111444
Canberra 9 01310433
Hobart 10 11120434
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Dec :
Macquarie Island 7 11020333
Casey 23 44422435
Mawson 22 33223436
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Dec :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Melbourne 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1010 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Dec 16 Active
21 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 61 was issued on 19 December
and is current for 20-21 Dec. In the IPS magnetometer data for
19 Dec, a weak (24nT) impulse was observed at 1617UT and a weak
(20nT) impulse was observed at 1803UT. These events are due to
the CME sequence observed Dec 16. The regional geomagnetic field
was Quiet prior to the impulse. Post event geomagnetic conditions
were at Minor Storm levels 15-18UT, Active 18-21UT and Unsettled
21-24UT. Expect geomagnetic disturbance to continue at mostly
Unsettled levels with some active periods day one of the forecast
period, declining to generally Quiet by day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Disturbance expected at high latitudes Dec 20 due to
anticipated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Dec 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
No data after 19UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Variable enhancements to 20%.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 55
Dec 63
Jan 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Dec 55 Near predicted monthly values
21 Dec 60 Near predicted monthly values
22 Dec 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Generally moderately enhanced ionospheric conditions
observed throughout the region Dec 19. Ongoing geomagnetic activity
on day one may result in variable conditions at low to mid latitudes
and periods of disturbance at high latitudes. Increased absorption
possible Antarctic region due to elevated solar wind proton fluxes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Dec
Speed: 406 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 103000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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