[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 12 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 13 10:30:28 EST 2015


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 DECEMBER - 15 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Dec: 117/69


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Dec             14 Dec             15 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Low for the UT day, 12 December. 
The largest flare was a C7.8 from active region 2470 (N13E76). 
Note several other regions produced C-class flares: AR 2463, 
AR 2465, AR 2466, AR 2468 and AR 2469 during the UT day. No Earth-directed 
CME expected at this time. Expect Low solar activity over the 
next three days with a slight chance of M-class flares. ACE spacecraft 
shows a declining solar wind speed from just over 700 km/s to 
just over 500 km/s over the last 24 hours. The Bz component of 
the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-4nT over 
the last 24 hours. Expect the solar wind to continue to decline 
to moderate levels over the UT day, 13 December. On 15 December 
expect an elevated solar wind as coronal hole becomes geoeffective.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22222212
      Cocos Island         4   12211211
      Darwin               5   22212211
      Townsville           7   22322212
      Learmonth            9   22322322
      Alice Springs        5   22222201
      Norfolk Island       4   12221111
      Gingin               7   22212312
      Camden               9   22322322
      Canberra             5   22211211
      Hobart               8   23322212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Dec :
      Macquarie Island    14   23533211
      Casey               21   45532322
      Mawson              26   34423455

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              46   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            54   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne          104   (Major storm)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             16   4333 3343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Dec     6    Quiet
14 Dec     6    Quiet
15 Dec    20    Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for the Australian region were 
mostly Quiet during the UT day, 12 December with a few isolated 
periods of Unsettled levels as the solar wind subsides. Expect 
conditions to remain at mostly Quiet levels for the next two 
days and then return to Active levels on 15 December as the solar 
wind increases.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Dec    50

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      55
Dec      63
Jan      63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Dec    63    Near predicted monthly values
14 Dec    63    Near predicted monthly values
15 Dec    63    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were near predicted monthly MUFs during 
the local night with moderate depressions during the local day, 
12 December, over the Australian region. Isolated periods of 
blanketing sporadic-E conditions were observed in the Australasian 
region. Expect near predicted MUFs for the next three days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Dec
Speed: 634 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:   211000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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