[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 12 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 13 10:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 DECEMBER - 15 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Dec: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Low for the UT day, 12 December.
The largest flare was a C7.8 from active region 2470 (N13E76).
Note several other regions produced C-class flares: AR 2463,
AR 2465, AR 2466, AR 2468 and AR 2469 during the UT day. No Earth-directed
CME expected at this time. Expect Low solar activity over the
next three days with a slight chance of M-class flares. ACE spacecraft
shows a declining solar wind speed from just over 700 km/s to
just over 500 km/s over the last 24 hours. The Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-4nT over
the last 24 hours. Expect the solar wind to continue to decline
to moderate levels over the UT day, 13 December. On 15 December
expect an elevated solar wind as coronal hole becomes geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 22222212
Cocos Island 4 12211211
Darwin 5 22212211
Townsville 7 22322212
Learmonth 9 22322322
Alice Springs 5 22222201
Norfolk Island 4 12221111
Gingin 7 22212312
Camden 9 22322322
Canberra 5 22211211
Hobart 8 23322212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Dec :
Macquarie Island 14 23533211
Casey 21 45532322
Mawson 26 34423455
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 46 (Unsettled)
Canberra 54 (Unsettled)
Melbourne 104 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16 4333 3343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Dec 6 Quiet
14 Dec 6 Quiet
15 Dec 20 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for the Australian region were
mostly Quiet during the UT day, 12 December with a few isolated
periods of Unsettled levels as the solar wind subsides. Expect
conditions to remain at mostly Quiet levels for the next two
days and then return to Active levels on 15 December as the solar
wind increases.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal
15 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Dec 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 55
Dec 63
Jan 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Dec 63 Near predicted monthly values
14 Dec 63 Near predicted monthly values
15 Dec 63 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were near predicted monthly MUFs during
the local night with moderate depressions during the local day,
12 December, over the Australian region. Isolated periods of
blanketing sporadic-E conditions were observed in the Australasian
region. Expect near predicted MUFs for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Dec
Speed: 634 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 211000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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