[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 13 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 14 10:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 DECEMBER - 16 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Dec: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Low for the UT day, 13 December.
The largest flare was a C5.3 from active region 2468 (S15E25)
at 1034UT. This flare was associated with a CME on the east limb
first observed by LASCO C2 imagery at 1112UT and does not appear
to be Earthward directed. Expect Low solar activity over the
next three days with a slight chance of M-class flares. ACE spacecraft
shows a declining solar wind speed from just over 550 km/s to
approximately 450 km/s over the last 24 hours. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-3nT over
the last 24 hours. Expect the solar wind to continue to decline
over most of the UT day, 14 December. Late on 14 December to
early on 15 December expect an elevated solar wind as a negative
polarity recurrent coronal hole becomes geoeffective. The solar
wind speed is expected to rise to around 500 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11222001
Cocos Island 2 11121000
Darwin 3 11221001
Townsville 6 22232111
Learmonth 5 11232101
Alice Springs 3 21122001
Norfolk Island 2 -1121001
Gingin 5 21232101
Camden 4 12221111
Canberra 2 11121000
Hobart 4 22122011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Dec :
Macquarie Island 6 12341000
Casey 14 35332112
Mawson 14 43332233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Melbourne 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2422 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Dec 20 Active
16 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 59 was issued on 13 December
and is current for 15-16 Dec. Geomagnetic conditions for the
Australian region were mostly Quiet during the UT day, 13 December,
with a few isolated periods of Unsettled levels as the solar
wind subsides. Expect conditions to remain at mostly Quiet levels
for today, 14 December, followed by a return to Active levels
late on 14 December to early on 15 December as the solar wind
increases due to recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Dec 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 55
Dec 63
Jan 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Dec 63 Near predicted monthly values
15 Dec 40 Near predicted monthly values
16 Dec 30 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 80 was issued on 13 December
and is current for 15-17 Dec. HF conditions were near predicted
monthly MUFs during the UT day, 13 December, over the Australian
region. Isolated periods of blanketing sporadic-E conditions
were observed in the Australasian region. Expect near predicted
MUFs today, 14 December. On the 15-16 December expect some degraded
HF conditions and with possible slight to moderate depression
due to an expected minor geomagnetic storm.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Dec
Speed: 570 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 160000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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