[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 10 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 11 10:30:27 EST 2015 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Dec: 109/59


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Dec             12 Dec             13 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   112/63             115/66             120/72

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Low for the UT day, 10 December, 
due to AR 2468 (S14E68) producing C3.9-class flare. No Earth-directed 
CME was observed via LASCO imagery. Expect Low solar activity 
over the next three days with a slight chance of M-class flares. 
ACE spacecraft shows a steady solar wind speed increase from 
420 km/s to 640 km/s over the last 24 hours. The Bz component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-10nT over 
the last 24 hours. Expect the solar wind to remain elevated for 
most of the UT day, 11 December, due to effects of an equatorial 
coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Dec: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 10 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   24322233
      Cocos Island        10   2322233-
      Darwin              10   24222223
      Townsville          13   34322233
      Learmonth           15   34323333
      Alice Springs       12   24322233
      Norfolk Island      11   24322132
      Gingin              13   33322333
      Camden              13   3432223-
      Canberra             8   23322122
      Hobart              13   24323233    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Dec :
      Macquarie Island    26   35445432
      Casey               35   46643343
      Mawson              42   56434563

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           22   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   2300 1232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Dec    15    Unsettled to Active
12 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
13 Dec     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for the Australian region were 
Quiet to Active during the UT day, 10 December due to an increase 
in the solar wind speed. Expect conditions to slowly return to 
Unsettled levels as the UT day, 11 December, progresses.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-poor    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Dec    72

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      55
Dec      63
Jan      63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Dec    50    Near predicted monthly values
12 Dec    63    Near predicted monthly values
13 Dec    63    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 78 was issued 
on 9 December and is current for 11 Dec only. HF conditions were 
near predicted monthly values during the UT day, 10 December, 
over the Australian region. Isolated periods of blanketing sporadic-E 
conditions continue to be observed in the eastern Australian 
region. Expect near predicted MUFs for the next three days with 
possible periods of degraded conditions at high latitudes such 
as Tasmania today, 11 December, due to active levels of geomagnetic 
activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Dec
Speed: 448 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:    66100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.

More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list