[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 09 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 10 10:30:26 EST 2015 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 DECEMBER - 12 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Dec: 109/59


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Dec             11 Dec             12 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Low for the UT day, 09 December, 
due to AR 2466 (S13E18) producing three weak C-class flares. 
No Earth-directed CME was observed via LASCO imagery. Expect 
Low solar activity over the next three days with a slight chance 
of M-class flares. ACE spacecraft shows a steady solar wind speed 
decrease from 510 km/s to 440 km/s over the last 24 hours. The 
Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 
+/-5nT over the last 24 hours with no prolonged negative periods. 
Expect the solar wind to increase today, 10 December, due to 
an equatorial coronal hole becoming geoeffective.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 09 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11112221
      Cocos Island         4   10012131
      Darwin               3   11111211
      Townsville           5   12111222
      Learmonth            6   22122221
      Alice Springs        4   12111221
      Norfolk Island       3   11011221
      Gingin               7   21112331
      Camden               5   12112222
      Canberra             3   11002221
      Hobart               6   12112322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     5   12002321
      Casey               17   45322332
      Mawson              24   34223364

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            6   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9   4212 3112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Dec    25    Active
11 Dec    15    Unsettled to Active
12 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 58 was issued on 9 December 
and is current for 10 Dec only. Geomagnetic conditions for the 
Australian region were mostly Quiet during the UT day, 09 December. 
Expect an increase in geomagnetic activity mid way through the 
UT day, 10 December, with Active conditions in the Australian 
region and possible isolated periods of Minor to Major Storm 
levels at the higher latitudes such as Tasmania.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Dec      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
11 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Dec    58

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      55
Dec      63
Jan      63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Dec    45    Near predicted monthly values
11 Dec    20    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
12 Dec    20    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 77 was issued on 7 December 
and is current for 8-10 Dec. HF conditions were near predicted 
monthly values during the UT day, 09 December, over the Australian 
region. Isolated periods of blanketing sporadic-E conditions 
continue to be observed in the eastern Australian region. Expect 
near predicted to minor depressions today with possible degraded 
conditions late in the UT day and tomorrow, 11 December, due 
to an increase in geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Dec
Speed: 555 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:   147000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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