[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 August 15 issued 2353 UT on 26 Aug 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 27 09:53:07 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 27 AUGUST - 29 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
C9.0 1354UT probable lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Aug: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Very low to low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with region
2403 (S16W35) the source of numerous C-class flares, the largest
being a long duration C9.5 event peaking at 1353UT. Region 2403
remains relatively unchanged in size and in magnetic complexity
and has the potential for further M-class events and possible
X-class. Solar wind speed declined gradually from ~425km/s to
be ~360km/s at the time of this report. Bz was southward for
almost the entire UT day, fluctuating at first between +1nT and
-4nT from 00UT to 05UT whereafter it increased in magnitude with
a sustained southward period of -8nT from 11UT through to the
time of this report. Solar wind speed is expected to increase
over the next 24 hours due to the effects of a negative polarity
equatorial positioned coronal hole that moved into geoeffective
position 25Aug. Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate
over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Aug: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 26 Aug : A K
Australian Region 18 23354332
Cocos Island 13 22332433
Darwin 15 23344232
Townsville 22 23355333
Learmonth 21 22355333
Alice Springs 18 13354332
Norfolk Island 15 22354222
Culgoora 18 23354332
Camden 18 23354332
Gingin 23 33345443
Canberra 14 13244332
Melbourne 21 23354343
Launceston 23 24355333
Hobart 18 23354332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Aug :
Macquarie Island 41 23566552
Casey 13 33333232
Mawson 58 55454765
Davis 27 44453533
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 2332 1232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Aug 25 Active
28 Aug 20 Active
29 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet to Minor storm levels observed over the last 24
hours. Sustained southward Bz conditions produced Minor Storm
conditions 11-14UT. Active to possible Minor storm conditions
expected for 27Aug with the anticipated arrival of the high speed
solar wind stream from the negative polarity equatorial positioned
coronal hole. Active conditions for 28Aug and mostly Unsettled
with possible Active periods for 29Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Aug Fair Fair Fair-poor
28 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio maximum usable frequencies are unusually depressed.
Regional foF2 values are generally 10%-30% below long term predicted
monthly values. Increased geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours and predicted for the next 3 days is expected
delay ionospheric recovery and return to monthly predicted values.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Aug 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 60
Aug 80
Sep 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Aug 35 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
28 Aug 35 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
29 Aug 40 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 41 was issued on 26
August and is current for 26-27 Aug. Moderately depressed ionospheric
support observed across all AUS/NZ regions for the last 24 hours.
A further reduction of MUFs possible for 27-28Aug due to increased
geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Aug
Speed: 396 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 59300 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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