[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 August 15 issued 2350 UT on 25 Aug 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 26 09:50:46 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 26 AUGUST - 28 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Aug: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Aug 27 Aug 28 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with region
2403 (S14W27) producing numerous C-class events flares, the largest
being a C4.3 event at 0631UT. Region 2403 remains relatively
unchanged in size and in magnetic complexity with the potential
for further M-class events and possible X-class. Solar wind speed
ranged between 400km/s to 450km/s over the UT day while Bz ranged
fluctuated between +2nT and -5nT. A equatorial positioned coronal
hole has moved into geoeffective position with an anticipated
arrival of its high speed solar wind stream on the 27Aug to early
28Aug. Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate over
the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 12221221
Cocos Island 4 11221120
Darwin 6 22221122
Townsville 5 12221122
Learmonth 6 12220231
Alice Springs 5 11221221
Norfolk Island 6 12231121
Culgoora 6 12231121
Camden 7 12231222
Gingin 7 11221331
Canberra 4 11221121
Melbourne 8 12232232
Launceston 9 22332231
Hobart 8 12232231
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Aug :
Macquarie Island 7 11332221
Casey 7 32221222
Mawson 18 23421354
Davis 10 22422132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 3322 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Aug 6 Quiet
27 Aug 13 Unsettled to Active
28 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet
conditions expected for 26Aug. The -ve polarity equatorial positioned
coronal hole is currently located on the central meridian. Its
expected influence on the solar wind stream is for Quiet to Unsettled
conditions with possible Active periods late in the UT day for
27Aug and Unsettled to Active conditions for 28Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio maximum usable frequencies are unusually depressed.
Regional foF2 values are generally 10%-30% below long term predicted
monthly values. MUF's are expected to increase slightly over
the next 24-48 hours, but a combination of both increased geomagnetic
conditions around 28Aug (coronal hole) and reduced solar activity
(as current active region 2403 moves off the visible disk) is
expected delay ionospheric recovery and return to monthly predicted
values.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Aug 42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 60
Aug 80
Sep 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Aug 45 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
27 Aug 50 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
28 Aug 40 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 40 was issued on 24 August
and is current for 24-26 Aug. Moderately depressed ionospheric
support observed across all AUS/NZ regions for the last 24 hours.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 2 days. A further
reduction of MUFs possible for 28Aug due to possible geomagnetic
Activity from coronal hole effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Aug
Speed: 455 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 72100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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