[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 August 15 issued 2330 UT on 21 Aug 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 22 09:30:26 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 22 AUGUST - 24 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 0948 UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Aug: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Aug 23 Aug 24 Aug
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 115/66
COMMENT: Active Region 2403 produced three M class solar flares
during 21 Aug. The largest flare was a M1.4 event peaking at
09:48 UT. This region will likely produce more M class flares
during the next 48 hours. A Type II radio frequency burst was
observed in association with the 09:48 UT flare. SOHO LASCO coronagrams
showing the CME are becoming available at the time of this report.
AR 2403 is located in the Eastern Hemisphere and the CME will
probably miss or graze the Earth. GONG H alpha solar images recorded
a Disappearing Solar Filament (DSF) in a geoeffective location
in the North-West quadrant during 20 UT on 21 Aug. Further analysis
will be undertaken when more observations become available. Coronal
Hole 684 has almost reached the geoeffective location and a weak
Corotating Interaction Region (CIR) with subsequent fast wind
will probably impact Earth during the next 2 days. The solar
wind speed showed a declining trend from 500 km/s to 400 km/s
during 21 Aug. The magnitude of the IMF has been about 6 nT and
the Bz component has been fluctuating between about -5 nT and
+6 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 11202111
Cocos Island 2 11211010
Darwin 4 12202012
Townsville 4 12202112
Learmonth 5 11312111
Alice Springs 3 11202011
Norfolk Island 1 11101010
Culgoora 3 11202111
Gingin 5 11312021
Canberra 1 01101110
Launceston 6 22203211
Hobart 4 12202111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 11201100
Casey 11 34422111
Mawson 15 24424123
Davis 14 23433124
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Melbourne 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14 3322 5233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Aug 18 Active
24 Aug 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 21 Aug. They
are expected to remain quiet for most of 22 Aug. A weak CIR followed
by fast wind will probably arrive at Earth during the next 48
hours. The CIR will cause unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation continue to
remain unusually depressed, especially in the Northern Hemisphere.
Regional T indices are generally 10%-50% below the long term
predicted monthly values.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Aug 34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 50% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 50% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 60
Aug 80
Sep 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Aug 35 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
23 Aug 40 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
24 Aug 40 10 to 25% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 21
August and is current for 21-22 Aug. Conditions for HF radio
wave propagation were depressed throughout the Australian region
during 21 August. The depressions were up to 50% at the low latitude
stations Cocos Island, Niue and Darwin, and up to 30% at the
Australian mid-latitude stations. The conditions are expected
to remain unusually depressed during coming days. However, they
are expected to trend back towards monthly predicted values during
the 4 week period approaching the September equinox.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Aug
Speed: 484 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 126000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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