[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 August 15 issued 2336 UT on 20 Aug 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 21 09:36:44 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 21 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Aug: 103/52


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Aug             22 Aug             23 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             110/60             115/66

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was low for the UT day, 20 August. 
There were a few C class flares mostly from active Region 2403. 
The largest C class (C3.4) was observed at 0508 UT from Region 
2403. Since Region 2403 is still active and growing, the 2-day 
outlook is for low solar activity with a slight chance of M class 
flare. The solar wind fluctuated between 400 to 550 km/s over 
the last 24 hours, and showed a weak declining trend. The current 
speed is at 400 km/s. During this period, the Bz component of 
IMF fluctuated between -5/+5 nT and Bt was generally steady at 
around 7 nT. The high solar wind speeds are due to the large 
coronal hole located in the Northern Hemisphere (CH683). The 
effects of CH683 is expected to wane over the next 1-2 days. 
Another smaller coronal hole (CH 684) located near the solar 
equator is likely to moved into geoeffective position next week 
and possibly causing unsettled conditions at the earth.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Aug: Unsettled

Estimated Indices 20 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22224222
      Cocos Island         6   11223212
      Darwin               6   11123212
      Townsville          10   22234222
      Learmonth           10   22233223
      Alice Springs        7   22223212
      Norfolk Island       9   22224221
      Culgoora            10   22234222
      Gingin              10   22224223
      Canberra             8   22124211
      Launceston          13   22235222
      Hobart               8   12124221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    15   22136210
      Casey               11   33422113
      Mawson              29   54433326
      Davis               19   34443314

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           35   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             19   4443 4322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Aug    12    Unsettled
22 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
23 Aug    18    Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Unsettled for the 
UT day, 20 August. The two day outlook is geomagnetic conditions 
will be mostly quiet to unsettled as the coronal hole (CH683) 
effects wane. However, there could be minor storms in the higher 
latitude regions since the solar winds are expected to remain 
strong over the next day (21 August) and provided if Bz is strongly 
negative for prolonged periods. There maybe unsettled to active 
conditions latter during the weak as another coronal hole (CH684) 
moves into geoeffective location.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
22 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
23 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed 
during 20 August. The conditions are expected to remain depressed 
in both hemispheres during 21 August. They will recover towards 
mildly depressed conditions later in the week.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Aug    37

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      60
Aug      80
Sep      78

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Aug    40    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
22 Aug    45    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
23 Aug    45    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 37 was issued on 19 August 
and is current for 19-21 Aug. Conditions for HF radio wave propagation 
were depressed throughout the Australian region during 20 August. 
Similar HF conditions are expected for 21 and 22 Aug. These depressions 
are due to continuos low levels of ionising solar flux. The HF 
conditions are expected to slowly trend back towards mildly depressed 
conditions relative to the long-term monthly prediction of T=80.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Aug
Speed: 467 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:   126000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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