[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 August 15 issued 2336 UT on 20 Aug 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 21 09:36:44 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 21 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Aug: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Aug 22 Aug 23 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 115/66
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was low for the UT day, 20 August.
There were a few C class flares mostly from active Region 2403.
The largest C class (C3.4) was observed at 0508 UT from Region
2403. Since Region 2403 is still active and growing, the 2-day
outlook is for low solar activity with a slight chance of M class
flare. The solar wind fluctuated between 400 to 550 km/s over
the last 24 hours, and showed a weak declining trend. The current
speed is at 400 km/s. During this period, the Bz component of
IMF fluctuated between -5/+5 nT and Bt was generally steady at
around 7 nT. The high solar wind speeds are due to the large
coronal hole located in the Northern Hemisphere (CH683). The
effects of CH683 is expected to wane over the next 1-2 days.
Another smaller coronal hole (CH 684) located near the solar
equator is likely to moved into geoeffective position next week
and possibly causing unsettled conditions at the earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Aug: Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Aug : A K
Australian Region 9 22224222
Cocos Island 6 11223212
Darwin 6 11123212
Townsville 10 22234222
Learmonth 10 22233223
Alice Springs 7 22223212
Norfolk Island 9 22224221
Culgoora 10 22234222
Gingin 10 22224223
Canberra 8 22124211
Launceston 13 22235222
Hobart 8 12124221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Aug :
Macquarie Island 15 22136210
Casey 11 33422113
Mawson 29 54433326
Davis 19 34443314
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 19 4443 4322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Aug 12 Unsettled
22 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Aug 18 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Unsettled for the
UT day, 20 August. The two day outlook is geomagnetic conditions
will be mostly quiet to unsettled as the coronal hole (CH683)
effects wane. However, there could be minor storms in the higher
latitude regions since the solar winds are expected to remain
strong over the next day (21 August) and provided if Bz is strongly
negative for prolonged periods. There maybe unsettled to active
conditions latter during the weak as another coronal hole (CH684)
moves into geoeffective location.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed
during 20 August. The conditions are expected to remain depressed
in both hemispheres during 21 August. They will recover towards
mildly depressed conditions later in the week.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Aug 37
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 60
Aug 80
Sep 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Aug 40 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
22 Aug 45 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
23 Aug 45 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 37 was issued on 19 August
and is current for 19-21 Aug. Conditions for HF radio wave propagation
were depressed throughout the Australian region during 20 August.
Similar HF conditions are expected for 21 and 22 Aug. These depressions
are due to continuos low levels of ionising solar flux. The HF
conditions are expected to slowly trend back towards mildly depressed
conditions relative to the long-term monthly prediction of T=80.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Aug
Speed: 467 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 126000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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